干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): The future of Iberian droughts: a deeper analysis based on multi-scenario and a multi-model ensemble approach

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DOI	10.1007/s11069-023-05938-7
	The future of Iberian droughts: a deeper analysis based on multi-scenario and a multi-model ensemble approach
	Soares, Pedro M. M.; Careto, Joao A. M.; Russo, Ana; Lima, Daniela C. A.
通讯作者	Soares, PMM ; Careto, JAM
来源期刊	NATURAL HAZARDS
ISSN	0921-030X
EISSN	1573-0840
出版年	2023
卷号	117 期号:2 页码:2001-2028
英文摘要	As a result of warming and precipitation deficits, the increasing shortage of water resources, droughts have become one of the main drivers of desertification, land degradation and food insecurity with direct impacts on ecosystems and society, especially in fragile communities. Over the Iberian Peninsula, a known climate change hotspot, the occurrence of droughts varies in intensity and severity, being its assessment under present and future conditions an important tool for adaptation measures. Here, for the first time, we present a comprehensive analysis of different plausible evolutions of droughts throughout the twenty-first century over Iberia on a monthly basis, featuring three different emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5). A multi-variable, multi-model EURO-CORDEX weighted ensemble is used to assess future drought conditions using the SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) and SPEI (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index). All indexes were computed by considering the full period, from 1971 to 2000 merged with 2011-2100 from each RCP scenario. The results clearly show that the Iberian Peninsula is highly vulnerable to climate change, indicating a significant increase in the intensity and severity of drought occurrences, even for the low-end RCP2.6 scenario. For the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the increases are more pronounced and enhanced throughout the twenty-first century, from 3 up to 12 more severe droughts for the shorter timescales with increases in mean duration above 30 months for the longer accumulation periods. The use of all the RCPs data pooled together with a multi-variable weighted ensemble approach allows not only a more accurate and robust projection of future droughts but also ensures comparability among the projections from the three RCP scenarios. The future drought evolution aspires to assist the new Portuguese national roadmap for adaptation for the twenty-first century, bridging the water sector challenges from mitigation to adaptation in a dynamic way.
英文关键词	EURO-CORDEX Multi-variable weighted ensemble Iberian Peninsula SPI and SPEI
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	Green Submitted, hybrid
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000984445200001
WOS关键词	DOWNSCALING EXPERIMENT CORDEX ; EURO-CORDEX ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; PRECIPITATION ; MODEL ; EVENTS ; PROJECTIONS ; PENINSULA ; IMPACT ; PRODUCTIVITY
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/397887
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Soares, Pedro M. M.,Careto, Joao A. M.,Russo, Ana,et al. The future of Iberian droughts: a deeper analysis based on multi-scenario and a multi-model ensemble approach[J],2023,117(2):2001-2028.
APA	Soares, Pedro M. M.,Careto, Joao A. M.,Russo, Ana,&Lima, Daniela C. A..(2023).The future of Iberian droughts: a deeper analysis based on multi-scenario and a multi-model ensemble approach.NATURAL HAZARDS,117(2),2001-2028.
MLA	Soares, Pedro M. M.,et al."The future of Iberian droughts: a deeper analysis based on multi-scenario and a multi-model ensemble approach".NATURAL HAZARDS 117.2(2023):2001-2028.