干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Best fitting of probability distributions for monthly and annual maximum rainfall prediction in Junagadh region (Gujarat-India)

Arid

DOI	10.54302/mausam.v74i3.5898
	Best fitting of probability distributions for monthly and annual maximum rainfall prediction in Junagadh region (Gujarat-India)
	Gundalia, Manoj
通讯作者	Gundalia, M
来源期刊	MAUSAM
ISSN	0252-9416
出版年	2023
卷号	74 期号:3 页码:861-880
英文摘要	Rain is a meager and crucial hydrological variable in arid and semi-arid region. Junagadh (Gujarat -India) reels under monsoon rainfall uncertainties and thereby the agriculture and other water resources management activities suffer. Therefore, urgent attention is needed to address water resources conservation and crop damage issues due to deficits or excess rainfall. Water resources development of any locality depends on amount of runoff generated and rainfall received. Appropriate probability distributions need to be selected and fitted to the historical time series of rainfall for better frequency analysis and forecasting of the rainfall. The daily rainfall data was collected for a period of 38 years, i.e., from 1984 to 2021. This research attempts to fit eight different theoretical probability distributions to the monthly and annual maximum rainfall for one to five consecutive days to select the best one for the better prediction of maximum rainfall. For determination of goodness of fit Chi-Square and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency were carried out by comparing the expected values with the observed values. The results indicated that the Gumbel distribution emerged to be the best fit for the prediction of monthly and annual maximum rainfall of Junagadh Region.
英文关键词	Rainfall Frequency analysis Probability distributions Gumbel distribution Goodness of fit Chi-Square Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	hybrid
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001026936000023
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/397817
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gundalia, Manoj. Best fitting of probability distributions for monthly and annual maximum rainfall prediction in Junagadh region (Gujarat-India)[J],2023,74(3):861-880.
APA	Gundalia, Manoj.(2023).Best fitting of probability distributions for monthly and annual maximum rainfall prediction in Junagadh region (Gujarat-India).MAUSAM,74(3),861-880.
MLA	Gundalia, Manoj."Best fitting of probability distributions for monthly and annual maximum rainfall prediction in Junagadh region (Gujarat-India)".MAUSAM 74.3(2023):861-880.

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