干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Modelling spatiotemporal tendencies of climate types by Markov chain approach : A case study in Sanliurfa province in the south-eastern part of Turkey

Arid

DOI	10.54302/mausam.v74i3.872
	Modelling spatiotemporal tendencies of climate types by Markov chain approach : A case study in Sanliurfa province in the south-eastern part of Turkey
	Keskiner, Ali Demir; Cetin, Mahmut
通讯作者	Keskiner, AD
来源期刊	MAUSAM
ISSN	0252-9416
出版年	2023
卷号	74 期号:3 页码:621-638
英文摘要	Identification of spatiotemporal tendencies of climate types may help water managers mitigate the negative impacts of droughts on water-demanding sectors. The primary objective of this study was to figure out the spatiotemporal tendencies of climatetypes in Sanliurfa province by using Erinc's aridity index (EDI). To that end, long-term (1965-2018) annual precipitation and average annual maximum temperature series of meteorological stations were obtained and utilized to calculate the EDI series on a yearly basis. The EDI series of each station was divided into three periods, non-overlapping and successive, i.e., P1 (1965-1981), P2 (1982-1999) and P3 (2000-2018). Outliers were detected and removed from the EDI series; missing data were completed by regression analysis. The Markov transition probability matrix of the climate classes for the three periods was estimated for each station. Maps of the initial probability vectors and steady-state probabilities for the three periods of each climate class were generated by the inverse distance-weighted technique. Hypsometric curves for each climate class, as well as period, were developed and areal coverage of occurrence probabilities (OP) was determined. Results indicated that, as time progressed, the areal extent of severe-arid and arid climatic classes continued consistently to spread from the south to the north. Areas of semi-arid climate type showed a slight tendency towards the arid-climate type. Construction of large dams in the region could not prevent the shifts in the climate in favour of developing arid zones. The humid climate class is likely to vanish away in the future. Research led us to conclude that the expansion of the aridzone from south to northhas been alarming in terms of the adequacy of water resources. It is strongly recommended that spatiotemporal climate change studies should be periodically conducted in tandem with forest management practices for the region.
英文关键词	- Drought Spatiotemporal variability Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP in Turkish) Probabilistic modeling Markov chains
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	hybrid
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001026936000006
WOS关键词	SEMIARID REGION ; IMPACT ; BASIN ; AREAS ; GIS
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/397815
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Keskiner, Ali Demir,Cetin, Mahmut. Modelling spatiotemporal tendencies of climate types by Markov chain approach : A case study in Sanliurfa province in the south-eastern part of Turkey[J],2023,74(3):621-638.
APA	Keskiner, Ali Demir,&Cetin, Mahmut.(2023).Modelling spatiotemporal tendencies of climate types by Markov chain approach : A case study in Sanliurfa province in the south-eastern part of Turkey.MAUSAM,74(3),621-638.
MLA	Keskiner, Ali Demir,et al."Modelling spatiotemporal tendencies of climate types by Markov chain approach : A case study in Sanliurfa province in the south-eastern part of Turkey".MAUSAM 74.3(2023):621-638.