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DOI	10.3390/math11071628
	A Stochastic Weather Model for Drought Derivatives in Arid Regions: A Case Study in Qatar
	Paek, Jayeong; Pollanen, Marco; Abdella, Kenzu
通讯作者	Pollanen, M
来源期刊	MATHEMATICS
EISSN	2227-7390
出版年	2023
卷号	11 期号:7
英文摘要	In this paper, we propose a stochastic weather model consisting of temperature, humidity, and precipitation, which is used to calculate a reconnaissance drought index (RDI) in Qatar. The temperature and humidity models include stochastic differential equations and utilize an adjusted Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (O-U) process. For the precipitation model, a first-order Markov chain is used to differentiate between wet and dry days and the precipitation amount on wet days is determined by a probability distribution. Five different probability distributions were statistically tested to obtain an appropriate precipitation amount. The evapotranspiration used in the RDI calculation incorporates crop coefficient values, depends on the growth stages of the crops, and provides a crop-specific and more realistic representation of the drought conditions. Five different evapotranspiration formulations were investigated in order to obtain the most accurate RDI values. The calculated RDI was used to assess the intensity of drought in Doha, Qatar, and could be used for the pricing of financial drought derivatives, a form of weather derivative. These derivatives could be used by agricultural producers to hedge against the economic effects of droughts.
英文关键词	stochastic differential equations (SDEs) reconnaissance drought index (RDI) Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (O-U) processes Markov chains
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000969590900001
WOS关键词	MARKOV-CHAIN MODEL ; DAILY PRECIPITATION ; TEMPERATURE ; VARIABILITY ; SIMULATION
WOS类目	Mathematics
WOS研究方向	Mathematics
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/397812
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Paek, Jayeong,Pollanen, Marco,Abdella, Kenzu. A Stochastic Weather Model for Drought Derivatives in Arid Regions: A Case Study in Qatar[J],2023,11(7).
APA	Paek, Jayeong,Pollanen, Marco,&Abdella, Kenzu.(2023).A Stochastic Weather Model for Drought Derivatives in Arid Regions: A Case Study in Qatar.MATHEMATICS,11(7).
MLA	Paek, Jayeong,et al."A Stochastic Weather Model for Drought Derivatives in Arid Regions: A Case Study in Qatar".MATHEMATICS 11.7(2023).