干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Global desert expansion during the 21st century: Patterns, predictors and signals

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DOI	10.1002/ldr.4466
	Global desert expansion during the 21st century: Patterns, predictors and signals
	Wu, Shuyao; Liu, Laibao; Li, Delong; Zhang, Wentao; Liu, Kaidu; Shen, Jiashu; Zhang, Linbo
通讯作者	Wu, SY ; Zhang, LB
来源期刊	LAND DEGRADATION & DEVELOPMENT
ISSN	1085-3278
EISSN	1099-145X
出版年	2023
卷号	34 期号:2 页码:377-388
英文摘要	Desert expansion can cause tremendous damage to human wellbeing. However, the process of shifting from the non-desert state to the desert state, a representation of a system regime shift, remains unclear on a global scale. Clarifying the underpinning patterns, predictors and signals of this process is of great value in advancing our understanding of both ecosystem resilience and sustainable development. Here, we combine the climate classification map and long-term observational land cover data to assess the global desert distribution and its changes from 2000 to 2019. The identified desert areas covered approximately 7.53% of the global land in the past two decades. Only approximately 16.03% of these deserts showed expanding trends, especially in countries such as Tunisia, Tajikistan, and Peru. After assessing 26 climatic, ecological, and socioeconomic factors that could potentially influence desert expansion rates, vegetation cover diversity was identified as the strongest predictor in both hot and cold deserts, followed by cattle density in hot deserts and desert size in cold deserts. In addition, we also found that pronouncedly high fluctuations in vegetation productivity could serve as a possible signal for desert conversion. Our results provide not only a long-term overview of current global desert changing patterns but also possible guidance for constraining desert expansion.
英文关键词	desert expansion global scale pattern predictor regime shift signal
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000864932700001
WOS关键词	EARLY-WARNING SIGNALS ; DESERTIFICATION ; THRESHOLDS ; RESILIENCE ; INDICATORS ; ECOSYSTEM ; FOREST ; LAKE
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Soil Science
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Agriculture
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/397721
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wu, Shuyao,Liu, Laibao,Li, Delong,et al. Global desert expansion during the 21st century: Patterns, predictors and signals[J],2023,34(2):377-388.
APA	Wu, Shuyao.,Liu, Laibao.,Li, Delong.,Zhang, Wentao.,Liu, Kaidu.,...&Zhang, Linbo.(2023).Global desert expansion during the 21st century: Patterns, predictors and signals.LAND DEGRADATION & DEVELOPMENT,34(2),377-388.
MLA	Wu, Shuyao,et al."Global desert expansion during the 21st century: Patterns, predictors and signals".LAND DEGRADATION & DEVELOPMENT 34.2(2023):377-388.