干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Multi-Scenario Simulation and Driving Force Analysis of Ecosystem Service Value in Arid Areas Based on PLUS Model: A Case Study of Jiuquan City, China

Arid

DOI	10.3390/land12050937
	Multi-Scenario Simulation and Driving Force Analysis of Ecosystem Service Value in Arid Areas Based on PLUS Model: A Case Study of Jiuquan City, China
	Shi, Jing; Shi, Peiji; Wang, Ziyang; Wang, Lirong; Li, Yali
通讯作者	Shi, PJ
来源期刊	LAND
EISSN	2073-445X
出版年	2023
卷号	12 期号:5
英文摘要	The arid region of northwest China is an extremely fragile area of natural ecology. With population growth and continuous expansion of urban scale, the ecosystem in the arid region is facing greater pressure. Scientific assessment and prediction of the value of ecosystem services in arid areas are necessary and of great significance for the sustainable development of regional ecological environments. In this paper, a parametric optimal geographic model is used to analyze the driving factors of ESV spatial dispersion in Jiuquan City as an example. The PLUS model is also used to simulate the spatial and temporal evolution of ESV in 2035 under the scenarios of natural development, urban development, water constraints and ecological conservation, based on the historical change pattern of land use and ecosystem service value (ESV). The results showed that from 1980 to 2020, the plowland, water and construction land area in Jiuquan City showed a significant increasing trend, while other land use types showed a decreasing trend. ESV has increased from CNY 139.394 billion to CNY 142.642 billion. The expansion of plowland and water area was the main reason for the increase in ESV. Elevation, temperature, and precipitation are the main driving factors of spatial differentiation of ESV in Jiuquan City. The interaction of natural and human factors enhances the explanatory power of each factor to the spatial differentiation of ESV. In 2035, the ESV in four development scenarios in Jiuquan City showed an upward trend, and the ESV of the ecological protection scenario was the highest, which was the best mode to realize a sustainable development in Jiuquan City in the future. This study can provide scientific basis and decision-making basis for Jiuquan City to formulate sustainable development strategy.
英文关键词	ecosystem service value scenario simulation PLUS model parameter-optimal geographic detector Jiuquan City
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SSCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000996528400001
WOS关键词	LAND-USE CHANGE ; URBAN-GROWTH ; IMPACTS ; DYNAMICS ; BASIN ; GRAIN
WOS类目	Environmental Studies
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/397653
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Shi, Jing,Shi, Peiji,Wang, Ziyang,et al. Multi-Scenario Simulation and Driving Force Analysis of Ecosystem Service Value in Arid Areas Based on PLUS Model: A Case Study of Jiuquan City, China[J],2023,12(5).
APA	Shi, Jing,Shi, Peiji,Wang, Ziyang,Wang, Lirong,&Li, Yali.(2023).Multi-Scenario Simulation and Driving Force Analysis of Ecosystem Service Value in Arid Areas Based on PLUS Model: A Case Study of Jiuquan City, China.LAND,12(5).
MLA	Shi, Jing,et al."Multi-Scenario Simulation and Driving Force Analysis of Ecosystem Service Value in Arid Areas Based on PLUS Model: A Case Study of Jiuquan City, China".LAND 12.5(2023).