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DOI	10.2166/wcc.2023.237
	Assessing the vulnerability of flash floods to climate change in arid zones: Amman-Zarqa Basin, Jordan
	Al Saodi, Rihan; Al Kuisi, Mustafa; Al Salaymeh, Ahmed
通讯作者	Al Saodi, R
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE
ISSN	2040-2244
EISSN	2408-9354
出版年	2023
卷号	14 期号:12 页码:4376-4403
英文摘要	The objective of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity of flash floods to future climate change in the Amman-Zarqa Basin, Jordan. Historical daily rainfall and temperature data from 1970 to 2018 were collected, along with projected daily data derived from general circulation models (GCMs) forecast spanning 2019-2060. The methodology involved analyzing historical and model forecast data, conducting trend analysis, mapping changes in land use, estimating runoff volume, selecting indicators, assigning their weights through the analytical hierarchy process, and generating vulnerability maps. Analysis of precipitation trends revealed a 14.61% decrease in total annual rainfall over the past 48 years; however, future projections indicate a 5.26% increase. Downstream sub-catchments in the arid portion are projected to receive higher rainfall, while upstream sub-catchments are expected to experience a substantial decline, resulting in an overall reduction in runoff. Moreover, our findings demonstrate a rising trend in mean temperature, which is expected to persist. Remote sensing data indicate a 14.76% expansion of urban areas, indicative of rapid population growth. Although no highly vulnerable sub-catchments were identified, downstream sub-catchments 8 and 9 exhibited moderate vulnerability to flash floods, which can be attributed to the increase in rainfall and insufficient stormwater infrastructure.
英文关键词	Amman-Zarqa Basin analytical hierarchy process (AHP) climate change flash floods GCM models hydrological modeling and vulnerability
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001103501800001
WOS关键词	PRECIPITATION ; IMPACTS
WOS类目	Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/397607
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Al Saodi, Rihan,Al Kuisi, Mustafa,Al Salaymeh, Ahmed. Assessing the vulnerability of flash floods to climate change in arid zones: Amman-Zarqa Basin, Jordan[J],2023,14(12):4376-4403.
APA	Al Saodi, Rihan,Al Kuisi, Mustafa,&Al Salaymeh, Ahmed.(2023).Assessing the vulnerability of flash floods to climate change in arid zones: Amman-Zarqa Basin, Jordan.JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE,14(12),4376-4403.
MLA	Al Saodi, Rihan,et al."Assessing the vulnerability of flash floods to climate change in arid zones: Amman-Zarqa Basin, Jordan".JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE 14.12(2023):4376-4403.