干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 500-year reconstruction of Dez River discharge in southwestern Iran from tree rings

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129895
	500-year reconstruction of Dez River discharge in southwestern Iran from tree rings
	Sharifazari, S.; Palmer, J. G.; Higgins, P. A.; Rao, M. P.; Johnson, F.; Turney, C. S. M.; Martin-Benito, D.; Andersen, M. S.
通讯作者	Sharifazari, S
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
ISSN	0022-1694
EISSN	1879-2707
出版年	2023
卷号	624
英文摘要	Long-term river discharge records are essential for water resource management, especially in semi-arid regions. However, the short instrumental records in Iran and the limited availability of local paleoclimate proxies to extend these records hinder our understanding of the full range of hydrologic variability. To help overcome these constraints, we have used annually-resolved tree-ring width chronologies from a network of sites spanning the eastern Mediterranean to the Tibetan Plateau to develop the first multi-centennial (similar to 500 years) river discharge reconstruction for the Dez River basin, a catchment that supports substantial water extraction in southwestern Iran. A Hierarchical Bayesian Regression (HBR) model accompanied by parsimonious predictor selection was used to derive the most robust model output. The selection method retained 26 precipitation-sensitive tree-ring width chronologies, mainly from regions with similar hydroclimate features to the Dez River basin. The resulting reconstruction of the most downstream gauging station accounts for 62% of the variance in river discharge observations, closely matching known historical events and other regional reconstructions. Notably, the un-derlying recurrence pattern of extreme flow conditions suggests floods were more frequent than low flow ex-tremes (i.e., droughts) during much of the 18th and early 19th centuries. In contrast, during the early 17th century, droughts were more frequent. Worryingly, the frequency of both floods and droughts has increased simultaneously since the beginning of the twentieth century. Our reconstruction could be used to assess current water allocation strategies under conditions similar to past extended dry periods. When combined with future projections, they can help provide more robust assessment scenarios for water management.
英文关键词	River discharge Palaeohydrology Dendrochronology Bayesian regression Climate variability Water supply
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	hybrid, Green Published
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001047842100001
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS ; SPRING PRECIPITATION ; RESERVOIR OPERATION ; WATER AVAILABILITY ; ZAGROS MOUNTAINS ; STREAMFLOW ; DROUGHT ; FLOW ; VARIABILITY ; PATTERNS
WOS类目	Engineering, Civil ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/397409
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sharifazari, S.,Palmer, J. G.,Higgins, P. A.,et al. 500-year reconstruction of Dez River discharge in southwestern Iran from tree rings[J],2023,624.
APA	Sharifazari, S..,Palmer, J. G..,Higgins, P. A..,Rao, M. P..,Johnson, F..,...&Andersen, M. S..(2023).500-year reconstruction of Dez River discharge in southwestern Iran from tree rings.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,624.
MLA	Sharifazari, S.,et al."500-year reconstruction of Dez River discharge in southwestern Iran from tree rings".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 624(2023).