干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Projection of Flash Droughts in the Headstream Area of Tarim River Basin Under Climate Change Through Bayesian Uncertainty Analysis

Arid

DOI	10.1029/2022JD037634
	Projection of Flash Droughts in the Headstream Area of Tarim River Basin Under Climate Change Through Bayesian Uncertainty Analysis
	Yu, Xiaohan; Zeng, Xiankui; Gui, Dongwei; Li, Xiaolan; Gou, Qiqi; Wang, Dong; Wu, Jichun
通讯作者	Zeng, XK
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
ISSN	2169-897X
EISSN	2169-8996
出版年	2023
卷号	128 期号:6
英文摘要	The Tarim River, the largest inland river in China, sits in the Tarim River Basin (TRB), which is an arid area with the ecosystem primarily sustained by water from melting snow and glaciers in the headstream area. To evaluate the pressures of natural disasters in this climate-change-sensitive basin, this study projected flash droughts in the headstream area of the TRB. We used the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model to describe the hydrological processes of the study area, Markov chain Monte Carlo to quantify the parameter uncertainty of the VIC model. Ten downscaled general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) were used to drive the VIC model, and the standardized evaporative stress ratio was applied to identify flash droughts. The results demonstrated that the VIC model after Bayesian parameters uncertainty analysis can efficiently describe the hydrological processes of the study area. In the future (2021-2100), compared with the plain region, the alpine region has higher flash drought frequency and intensity. Compared with the historical period (1961-2014), the frequency, duration, and intensity of flash droughts tend to increase throughout the study area, especially for the alpine area. Moreover, based on variance decomposition, CMIP6 model is the most important uncertainty source for flash drought projection, followed by the shared socioeconomic pathway of climate change scenario and VIC model parameters.
英文关键词	flash drought CMIP6 VIC model Markov chain Monte Carlo Bayesian uncertainty analysis
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000956921700001
WOS关键词	PARAMETER-ESTIMATION ; SOIL-MOISTURE ; RUNOFF ; MODEL ; ONSET ; TEMPERATURE ; EVAPORATION ; INFERENCE ; IMPACTS ; FLOOD
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/397350
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yu, Xiaohan,Zeng, Xiankui,Gui, Dongwei,et al. Projection of Flash Droughts in the Headstream Area of Tarim River Basin Under Climate Change Through Bayesian Uncertainty Analysis[J],2023,128(6).
APA	Yu, Xiaohan.,Zeng, Xiankui.,Gui, Dongwei.,Li, Xiaolan.,Gou, Qiqi.,...&Wu, Jichun.(2023).Projection of Flash Droughts in the Headstream Area of Tarim River Basin Under Climate Change Through Bayesian Uncertainty Analysis.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,128(6).
MLA	Yu, Xiaohan,et al."Projection of Flash Droughts in the Headstream Area of Tarim River Basin Under Climate Change Through Bayesian Uncertainty Analysis".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 128.6(2023).