干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): The prediction of social catastrophes: Between necessity and contingency

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DOI	10.1111/jtsb.12399
	The prediction of social catastrophes: Between necessity and contingency
	Donati, Pierpaolo
通讯作者	Donati, P
来源期刊	JOURNAL FOR THE THEORY OF SOCIAL BEHAVIOUR
ISSN	0021-8308
EISSN	1468-5914
出版年	2023
英文摘要	The article argues that social catastrophes are the product of networks of unsaturated social relations that lead to the exponential spread of a social evil (pandemic, poverty, desertification, etc.). In the exponential curve of catastrophe there is an inflection point where, if unsaturated social relations are saturated, the catastrophe can be halted and ultimately avoided. The inflection point can be conceived as a generative relational complex in which both necessity and contingency of social relations are at work. Necessity is due to constitutive mechanisms that are automatic and, therefore, to some extent mathematically predictable. Contingency refers to non-automatic, in principle unpredictable relational mechanisms. However, contingency can be of two kinds. It can mean dependence on other factors, which can have some degree of predictability, or can be understood as the possibility of being otherwise, which is less predictable in its outcomes, but can also open up new opportunities to change the catastrophic trend. The reduction of the exponential curve to logistics can be expected if the networks of relationships at the inflection point are saturated in one way or another. This can be achieved by managing the contingent factors of both types in order to steer the morphogenetic processes of the social networks that configure the inflection point as a relational complex.
英文关键词	contingency necessity prediction relational sociology social catastrophe
类型	Article ; Early Access
语种	英语
开放获取类型	hybrid
收录类别	SSCI
WOS记录号	WOS:001107687500001
WOS类目	Psychology, Social
WOS研究方向	Psychology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/397092
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Donati, Pierpaolo. The prediction of social catastrophes: Between necessity and contingency[J],2023.
APA	Donati, Pierpaolo.(2023).The prediction of social catastrophes: Between necessity and contingency.JOURNAL FOR THE THEORY OF SOCIAL BEHAVIOUR.
MLA	Donati, Pierpaolo."The prediction of social catastrophes: Between necessity and contingency".JOURNAL FOR THE THEORY OF SOCIAL BEHAVIOUR (2023).

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