干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Climate model projections of aridity patterns in Turkiye: A comprehensive analysis using CMIP6 models and three aridity indices

Arid

DOI	10.1002/joc.8201
	Climate model projections of aridity patterns in Turkiye: A comprehensive analysis using CMIP6 models and three aridity indices
	Yavasli, Dogukan Dogu; Erlat, Ecmel
通讯作者	Yavasli, DD
来源期刊	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN	0899-8418
EISSN	1097-0088
出版年	2023
卷号	43 期号:13 页码:6207-6224
英文摘要	Climate change can alter the spatial and temporal distribution of aridity around the world through a combination of factors such as reduced precipitation, rising temperatures and decreased evapotranspiration. Especially the Mediterranean region has been identified as vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change due to a significant reduction in precipitation compared to other land regions in all climate models operated under different scenarios. Despite numerous studies on aridity trends, few have focused specifically on Turkiye and considered a comprehensive range of aridity indices and scenarios. This study aims to fill this research gap by providing a more detailed understanding of future aridity trends in Turkiye under various climate change scenarios and using multiple aridity indices. A novelty of this study lies in the simultaneous examination of three aridity indices (PCI, EAI and UNEP AI) for Turkiye, allowing for a more comprehensive assessment of future aridity trends. Furthermore, this study considers three future time periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100) and three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to evaluate the potential range of climate change impacts on aridity in Turkiye. Therefore, in this study, we aimed to determine the changes in aridity conditions in Turkiye until the end of the 21st century. We used three aridity indices: the Pinna combinative index, the Erinc aridity index and the UNEP aridity index. These indices were calculated for the baseline period of 1981-2010 using gridded data (CHELSA) and for the periods of 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 using three climate models (GFDL-ESM4, MRI-ESM2-0 and IPSL-CM6A-LR) and multi-model means with three SSPs to represent different future scenarios. The results showed that all three indices indicate an increase in dry climate conditions in Turkiye after 2041, with particularly notable increases expected in Central Anatolia, Southeastern Anatolia and parts of the Eastern Mediterranean, as well as eastern parts of Eastern Anatolia and the inner Aegean region. Under the SSP3-7.0 scenario, the expansion of semi-arid and arid areas is predicted to cover more than 30% of the country by the end of the century (2071-2100). This increase in aridity could increase the region's vulnerability to climate change and the risk of desertification, which should be taken into consideration in national water management and planning.
英文关键词	aridity index CHELSA CMIP6 Erinc aridity index Pinna combinative index Turkiye UNEP aridity index
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	hybrid
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001049920100001
WOS关键词	NORTH-ATLANTIC OSCILLATION ; TREND ANALYSIS ; PRECIPITATION ; VARIABILITY ; TURKEY ; FUTURE
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/396975
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yavasli, Dogukan Dogu,Erlat, Ecmel. Climate model projections of aridity patterns in Turkiye: A comprehensive analysis using CMIP6 models and three aridity indices[J],2023,43(13):6207-6224.
APA	Yavasli, Dogukan Dogu,&Erlat, Ecmel.(2023).Climate model projections of aridity patterns in Turkiye: A comprehensive analysis using CMIP6 models and three aridity indices.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,43(13),6207-6224.
MLA	Yavasli, Dogukan Dogu,et al."Climate model projections of aridity patterns in Turkiye: A comprehensive analysis using CMIP6 models and three aridity indices".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 43.13(2023):6207-6224.