干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Socioeconomic exposure to drought under climate warming and globalization: The importance of vegetation-CO2 feedback

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DOI	10.1002/joc.8174
	Socioeconomic exposure to drought under climate warming and globalization: The importance of vegetation-CO2 feedback
	Wang, Tingting; Sun, Fubao
通讯作者	Wang, TT
来源期刊	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN	0899-8418
EISSN	1097-0088
出版年	2023
卷号	43 期号:12 页码:5778-5796
英文摘要	Climate change has intensified drought severity, duration, frequency, and the spatial extent, promoting considerable concern about the socioeconomic exposure to drought. Some previous studies have suggested the overestimation of drought indices and more drying due to neglecting the impact of vegetation response to CO2. Using models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and the socioeconomic projections, we quantified the impact of vegetation-CO2 feedback on extreme drought frequency and the corresponding exposure of population and GDP under SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios. Results show that extreme drought frequency will increase significantly, affecting over 70% of global land by the 2050s. Along with rapid growth of socioeconomic factors, population and GDP exposure will increase by 26.90%-36.12% and 2.51-2.95 folds in the 2030s and 67.78%-78.72% and 3.41-5.94 folds in the 2050s. Underdeveloped countries are projected to face the most significant challenges, with substantial increases in population and GDP exposure to extreme drought. By incorporating the impact of vegetation-CO2 feedback, we address biases of around 2% in extreme drought frequency, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions, showing underestimations of more drying across around half of global land in the baseline period and the 2030s. The biases, however, shift to be overestimations globally in the 2050s. As a result, early underestimations of extreme drought frequency will lead to significant underestimations in exposed population and GDP by 5.25% and 6.07% in the baseline period, as well as in the 2030s. In contrast, later overestimations will lead to overestimations of exposed population by 3.16%-8.54% and exposed GDP by 2.82%-6.65% in the 2050s. This study provides a more accurate estimation of socioeconomic exposure to extreme drought and highlights the potential risks associated with global warming.
英文关键词	exposure extreme drought GDP global warming population vegetation-CO2 feedback
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	hybrid
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001026252500001
WOS关键词	GLOBAL PATTERNS ; POPULATION ; RISK ; GDP ; CO2
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/396974
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang, Tingting,Sun, Fubao. Socioeconomic exposure to drought under climate warming and globalization: The importance of vegetation-CO2 feedback[J],2023,43(12):5778-5796.
APA	Wang, Tingting,&Sun, Fubao.(2023).Socioeconomic exposure to drought under climate warming and globalization: The importance of vegetation-CO2 feedback.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,43(12),5778-5796.
MLA	Wang, Tingting,et al."Socioeconomic exposure to drought under climate warming and globalization: The importance of vegetation-CO2 feedback".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 43.12(2023):5778-5796.