干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Modeling and predicting the effects of climate change on cotton-suitable habitats in the Central Asian arid zone

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.indcrop.2022.115838
	Modeling and predicting the effects of climate change on cotton-suitable habitats in the Central Asian arid zone
	Mai, Jianfeng; Liu, Guilin
通讯作者	Liu, GL
来源期刊	INDUSTRIAL CROPS AND PRODUCTS
ISSN	0926-6690
EISSN	1872-633X
出版年	2023
卷号	191
英文摘要	Climate change has significantly affected global agricultural production, particularly in arid zones of Central Asia. Thus, we analyzed changes in the habitat suitability of cotton in Central Asia under various shared so-cioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios during 2021-2060. The results showed that the average minimum tem-perature in April, precipitation seasonality, and distance to rivers were the main environmental factors influencing the suitable distribution of cotton. Suitable habitats expanded toward the north and east, reaching a maximum net increase of 10.85 x 104 km2 under the SSP5-8.5 scenario during 2041-2060, while habitats in the southwestern area showed a contracting trend. The maximum decreased and increased habitats were concen-trated at approximately 68 degrees E and 87 degrees E, respectively. In addition, their latitudinal distributions were concen-trated at approximately 40 degrees N and 44 degrees N. The longitudinal and latitudinal dividing lines of increased and decreased habitats were 69 degrees E and 41 degrees N, respectively. Habitats at the same altitude showed an increasing trend, excluding the elevation range of 125-325 m. Habitat shifts could exacerbate spatial conflicts with forest/ grassland and natural reserves. The maximum spatial overlap between them was observed under the SSP5-8.5 scenario during 2041-2060. These findings could provide scientific evidence for rational cotton cultivation planning in global arid zones.
英文关键词	Climate change MaxEnt model Spatial analysis Species distribution model Environmental variables
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000995306500001
WOS关键词	LAND-USE ; AGRICULTURE ; IMPACTS ; REGIONS ; YIELDS
WOS类目	Agricultural Engineering ; Agronomy
WOS研究方向	Agriculture
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/396931
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mai, Jianfeng,Liu, Guilin. Modeling and predicting the effects of climate change on cotton-suitable habitats in the Central Asian arid zone[J],2023,191.
APA	Mai, Jianfeng,&Liu, Guilin.(2023).Modeling and predicting the effects of climate change on cotton-suitable habitats in the Central Asian arid zone.INDUSTRIAL CROPS AND PRODUCTS,191.
MLA	Mai, Jianfeng,et al."Modeling and predicting the effects of climate change on cotton-suitable habitats in the Central Asian arid zone".INDUSTRIAL CROPS AND PRODUCTS 191(2023).