干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Global change scenarios in coastal river deltas and their sustainable development implications

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DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102736
	Global change scenarios in coastal river deltas and their sustainable development implications
	Scown, Murray W.; Dunn, Frances E.; Dekker, Stefan C.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Karabil, Sitar; Sutanudjaja, Edwin H.; Santos, Maria J.; Minderhoud, Philip S. J.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Middelkoop, Hans
通讯作者	Scown, MW
来源期刊	GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS
ISSN	0959-3780
EISSN	1872-9495
出版年	2023
卷号	82
英文摘要	Deltas play a critical role in the ambition to achieve global sustainable development given their relatively large shares in population and productive croplands, as well as their precarious low-lying position between upstream river basin development and rising seas. The large pressures on these systems risk undermining the persistence of delta societies, economies, and ecosystems. We analyse possible future development in 49 deltas around the globe under the Shared Socio-economic and Representative Concentration Pathways until 2100. Population density, urban fraction, and total and irrigated cropland fraction are three to twelve times greater in these deltas, on average, than in the rest of the world. Maximum river water discharges are projected to increase by 11-33 % and river sediment discharges are projected to decrease 26-37 % on average, depending on the scenario. Regional sea-level rise reaches almost 1.0 m by 2100 for certain deltas in the worst-case scenario, increasing to almost 2.0 m of relative rise considering land subsidence. Extreme sea levels could be much higher still-reaching over 4.0 m by 2100 for six of the 49 deltas analysed. Socio-economic conditions to support adaptation are the weakest among deltas with the greatest pressures, compounding the challenge of sustainable development. Asian and African deltas stand out as having heightened socio-economic challenges-huge pop-ulation and land use pressures in most Asian deltas and the Nile delta; low capacity for adaptation in most African deltas and the Irrawaddy delta. Although, deltas in other parts of the world are not immune from these and other pressures, either. Because of unique pressures and processes operating in deltas, as in other hotspots such as small islands, mountains, and semi-arid areas, we recommend greater consideration and con-ceptualisation of environmental processes in global sustainable development agendas and in the Integrated Assessment Models used to guide global policy.
英文关键词	Sea-level rise Climate risk Sustainable development Urbanisation SSP RCP
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	Green Published, hybrid, Green Accepted
收录类别	SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号	WOS:001061684000001
WOS关键词	SOCIOECONOMIC PATHWAYS ; LAND-USE ; LEVEL ; GOVERNANCE ; ACHIEVE ; MODEL ; SCALE
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Geography
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geography
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/396790
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Scown, Murray W.,Dunn, Frances E.,Dekker, Stefan C.,et al. Global change scenarios in coastal river deltas and their sustainable development implications[J],2023,82.
APA	Scown, Murray W..,Dunn, Frances E..,Dekker, Stefan C..,van Vuuren, Detlef P..,Karabil, Sitar.,...&Middelkoop, Hans.(2023).Global change scenarios in coastal river deltas and their sustainable development implications.GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,82.
MLA	Scown, Murray W.,et al."Global change scenarios in coastal river deltas and their sustainable development implications".GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS 82(2023).