干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Big data help to define climate change challenges for the typical Mediterranean species Cistus ladanifer L.

Arid

DOI	10.3389/fevo.2023.1136224
	Big data help to define climate change challenges for the typical Mediterranean species Cistus ladanifer L.
	Almeida, Alice Maria; Ribeiro, Maria Margarida; Ferreira, Miguel R.; Roque, Natalia; Quintela-Sabaris, Celestino; Fernandez, Paulo
通讯作者	Ribeiro, MM
来源期刊	FRONTIERS IN ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION
ISSN	2296-701X
出版年	2023
卷号	11
英文摘要	Climate change's huge impact on Mediterranean species' habitat suitability and spatial and temporal distribution in the coming decades is expected. The present work aimed to reconstruct rockrose (Cistus ladanifer L.) historical and future spatial distribution, a typically Mediterranean species with abundant occurrence in North Africa, Iberian Peninsula, and Southern France. The R ensemble modeling approach was made using the biomod2 package to assess changes in the spatial distribution of the species in the Last Interglacial (LIG), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and the Middle Holocene (MH), in the present, and in the future (for the years 2050 and 2070), considering two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The current species potential distribution was modeled using 2,833 occurrences, six bioclimatic variables, and four algorithms, Generalized Linear Model (GLM), MaxEnt, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). Two global climate models (GCMs), CCSM4 and MRI-CGCM3, were used to forecast past and future suitability. The potential area of occurrence of the species is equal to 15.8 and 14.1% of the study area for current and LIG conditions, while it decreased to 3.8% in the LGM. The species' presence diaminished more than half in the RCP 4.5 (to 6.8% in 2050 and 7% in 2070), and a too low figure (2.2%) in the worst-case scenario (RCP 8.5) for 2070. The results suggested that the current climatic conditions are the most suitable for the species' occurrence and that future changes in environmental conditions may lead to the loss of suitable habitats, especially in the worst-case scenario. The information unfolded by this study will help to understand future predictable desertification in the Mediterranean region and to help policymakers to implement possible measures for biodiversity maintenance and desertification avoidance.
英文关键词	Rock rose species distribution modeling biomod2 ensemble modeling climate change
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold, Green Published
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000961199500001
WOS关键词	DISTRIBUTION MODELS ; DIVERSITY PATTERNS ; UPPER-PLEISTOCENE ; GLACIAL REFUGIA ; PLANT DIVERSITY ; CISTACEAE ; DISPERSAL ; RECONSTRUCTION ; PHYLOGEOGRAPHY ; GERMINATION
WOS类目	Ecology
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/396500
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Almeida, Alice Maria,Ribeiro, Maria Margarida,Ferreira, Miguel R.,et al. Big data help to define climate change challenges for the typical Mediterranean species Cistus ladanifer L.[J],2023,11.
APA	Almeida, Alice Maria,Ribeiro, Maria Margarida,Ferreira, Miguel R.,Roque, Natalia,Quintela-Sabaris, Celestino,&Fernandez, Paulo.(2023).Big data help to define climate change challenges for the typical Mediterranean species Cistus ladanifer L..FRONTIERS IN ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION,11.
MLA	Almeida, Alice Maria,et al."Big data help to define climate change challenges for the typical Mediterranean species Cistus ladanifer L.".FRONTIERS IN ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION 11(2023).