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DOI	10.3389/feart.2023.1283171
	Assessing the impact of future climate scenarios on crop water requirements and agricultural water supply across different climatic zones of Pakistan
	Shafeeque, Muhammad; Bibi, Amna
通讯作者	Shafeeque, M
来源期刊	FRONTIERS IN EARTH SCIENCE
EISSN	2296-6463
出版年	2023
卷号	11
英文摘要	This study investigates the potential impacts of future climate change on crop water requirements (CWR) in different climatic zones of Pakistan and the subsequent implications for agricultural water demand and supply. Using the latest CMIP6 climate projections, we focused on Rabi and Kharif crop seasons, which are crucial for the growth of major crops in Pakistan. An empirical climate-crop and a hydrological model based on the Budyko theory were modified and forced to project future CWR changes and the potential widening of the water demand-supply gap until 2,100. Our results indicate a significant rise in mean annual CWR across all zones and emissions scenarios, with increasing rates at 2.30-2.57 mm/yr under SSP585 and 1.0-1.26 mm/yr under SSP245. Both Rabi and Kharif seasons show rising CWR, notably more under SSP585 (Kharif: 8%-14%, Rabi: 12%-15%) than SSP245 (Kharif: 4%-7%, Rabi: 6%-8%). The demand-supply gap is expected to grow notably, with arid and semi-arid zones being the most affected. Compared to 2015-2025, by 2091-2,100, the gap increased by 7%-15% (SSP245) and 15%-28% (SSP585) for Kharif and 7%-13% (SSP245) and 13%-32% (SSP585) for Rabi. To address these challenges, we recommend strategies like enhancing irrigation efficiency, adjusting crop patterns, and developing heat-resilient crops. Our insights aim to inform policy decisions on agriculture and water management in Pakistan under future climate change.
英文关键词	climate change crop water requirements agricultural water demand-supply Budyko hydrological model climate-crop model CMIP6
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001087843700001
WOS关键词	INDUS BASIN ; MODEL ; AVAILABILITY ; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; PRECIPITATION ; BALANCE ; FOOD ; PROJECTIONS ; ADAPTATION ; MANAGEMENT
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向	Geology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/396473
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Shafeeque, Muhammad,Bibi, Amna. Assessing the impact of future climate scenarios on crop water requirements and agricultural water supply across different climatic zones of Pakistan[J],2023,11.
APA	Shafeeque, Muhammad,&Bibi, Amna.(2023).Assessing the impact of future climate scenarios on crop water requirements and agricultural water supply across different climatic zones of Pakistan.FRONTIERS IN EARTH SCIENCE,11.
MLA	Shafeeque, Muhammad,et al."Assessing the impact of future climate scenarios on crop water requirements and agricultural water supply across different climatic zones of Pakistan".FRONTIERS IN EARTH SCIENCE 11(2023).