干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Uncertainties of Climate Change on Suitable Habitat of Calligonum mongolicum Turcz. (Polygonaceae) in Desert Areas of Central Asia

Arid

DOI	10.3390/f14051053
	Uncertainties of Climate Change on Suitable Habitat of Calligonum mongolicum Turcz. (Polygonaceae) in Desert Areas of Central Asia
	Liu, Guan; Zhang, Yanru; Lu, Qi; An, Keli; Li, Yurong; Xiong, Dongyang; Li, Guoqing; Du, Sheng
通讯作者	Du, S
来源期刊	FORESTS
EISSN	1999-4907
出版年	2023
卷号	14 期号:5
英文摘要	Understanding the climatically suitable habitat of species plays a vital role in the sustainable use and management of target species. Calligonum mongolicum Turcz., a native shrub species found in desert areas of Central Asia, is generally considered as one of the top four tree species for desertification control. However, previous works on suitable habitat simulation had focused mainly on either the national or specific geographical scales rather than entire biota scales, which have underestimated the climatic tolerance of the species. Furthermore, the uncertainty outcomes of climate change were largely ignored. With these questions, the arid regions of Central Asia were selected as our research background area. Occurrence data of C. mongolicum were obtained from various sources, such as the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, the Chinese Virtual Herbarium, and the iPlant website. The maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) was used to simulate the suitable habitat change dynamics under various climate change scenarios [5 general circulation models (GCMs) x 3 shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs)]. The uncertainty of climate change induced by GCMs and SSPs were decomposed by the two-way ANOVA method. Our results show that hydrological-related variables are more important for the species' habitat suitability than thermal-related variables. The climatic threshold for the core suitable habitat was 1-30 mm for precipitation of the coldest quarter, 14-401 mm for annual precipitation, -16.01-12.42 degrees C for mean temperature of the driest quarter, 9.48-32.63 degrees C for mean temperature of the wettest quarter, and -25.01-- 9.77 degrees C for the minimum temperature of the coldest month. The size of suitable habitat was about 287.4 +/- 10(4) km(2) under the current climate condition, located in China and Mongolia. Climate change has less impact on the total area size, but it has bigger impacts on the gain area and loss area sizes. The loss area is mainly located in the southeast boundaries, whereas the gain area is mainly located in Mongolia and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The decomposition uncertainty of climate change indicates that GCMs could explain 14.5%, 66.4%, and 97.0% of total variation, respectively, and SSPs could explain 85.5%, 33.6%, and 3.0% of the total variation for gain, loss, and total habitat sizes, respectively. Our work clearly demonstrates that while C. mongolicum has great planting potential in Central Asia under various climate change scenarios, the sensitive areas possess large uncertainties requiring long-term climate monitoring for afforestation projects.
英文关键词	Calligonum mongolicum Turcz. climatic threshold niche modeling desertification combating climate change range shift
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000996584400001
WOS关键词	POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTION ; DISTRIBUTION MODELS ; NICHE ; DISTRIBUTIONS ; PREDICTION ; PATTERNS ; ALTITUDE ; DROUGHT ; GARP
WOS类目	Forestry
WOS研究方向	Forestry
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/396421
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liu, Guan,Zhang, Yanru,Lu, Qi,et al. Uncertainties of Climate Change on Suitable Habitat of Calligonum mongolicum Turcz. (Polygonaceae) in Desert Areas of Central Asia[J],2023,14(5).
APA	Liu, Guan.,Zhang, Yanru.,Lu, Qi.,An, Keli.,Li, Yurong.,...&Du, Sheng.(2023).Uncertainties of Climate Change on Suitable Habitat of Calligonum mongolicum Turcz. (Polygonaceae) in Desert Areas of Central Asia.FORESTS,14(5).
MLA	Liu, Guan,et al."Uncertainties of Climate Change on Suitable Habitat of Calligonum mongolicum Turcz. (Polygonaceae) in Desert Areas of Central Asia".FORESTS 14.5(2023).