干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Earlier sowing combined with nitrogen fertilization to adapt to climate change effects on yield of winter wheat in arid environments: Results from a field and modeling study

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.eja.2023.126825
	Earlier sowing combined with nitrogen fertilization to adapt to climate change effects on yield of winter wheat in arid environments: Results from a field and modeling study
	Moghaddam, Hossein; Oveisi, Mostafa; Mehr, Mostafa Keshavarz; Bazrafshan, Javad; Naeimi, Mohammad Hossein; Kaleibar, Behnaz Pourmorad; Muller-Scharer, Heinz
通讯作者	Müller-Schärer, H
来源期刊	EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF AGRONOMY
ISSN	1161-0301
EISSN	1873-7331
出版年	2023
卷号	146
英文摘要	Climate change effects on crop production are of high concern in arid regions that are suffering from increased drought. We parameterized the APSIM-Wheat (The Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator) model using data of two field experiments conducted in 2017 at two locations (Karaj and Khomein) in Iran differing in temperature and precipitation. The experiment was a split plot with four replications. Main plots measured 17 m by 5 m with four irrigation regimes of full irrigation (I-1), deficit irrigation from grain filling (I-2,), from beginning of flowering (I-2), and during the whole growth period (I-4). Sub-plots measured 3 m by 5 m with nitrogen (N) levels of 200 (N-1), 100 (N-2) and 50 (N-3) kg/ha of urea (46 % N). N-1 resulted in highest wheat biomass, grain yield, harvesting index and leaf area index (LAI), with the differences between the N levels decreasing with increasing water deficit period. The model was parameterized for both localities with data of treatment I-1 +N-1, then evaluated over 11 combinations of irrigation and nitrogen rates. Root mean square of errors (RMSE) were 0.3 and 0.15 t/ha for wheat biomass and grain yield, and 3.54 days for wheat phenology and 0.28 for LAI simulations. After model calibration, we ran the model with 20 general circulation models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), and crop production was projected for three future time periods. For 2010-2039, models simulate a marginal increase in wheat yield, however, with 2040-2069 and 2070-2099, most models simulate a decreased growing season length and grain yield. Nitrogen application was found to decrease the drought impact. Additionally, model simulation suggests that earlier sowing time and excessive irrigation are of benefit in adapting to climate change impact. Thus, in arid environments where additional irrigation is not an option, increased nitrogen application in combination with an earlier sowing time could be an effective adaptation strategy for future wheat production.
英文关键词	Arid region cropping system Early sowing General circulation model Representative concentration pathway APSIM-wheat simulation
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	hybrid
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000968392100001
WOS关键词	ELEVATED CO2 ; WATER-USE ; TEMPERATURE ; PROJECTIONS ; UNCERTAINTY ; IMPACT ; MAIZE
WOS类目	Agronomy
WOS研究方向	Agriculture
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/396321
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Moghaddam, Hossein,Oveisi, Mostafa,Mehr, Mostafa Keshavarz,et al. Earlier sowing combined with nitrogen fertilization to adapt to climate change effects on yield of winter wheat in arid environments: Results from a field and modeling study[J],2023,146.
APA	Moghaddam, Hossein.,Oveisi, Mostafa.,Mehr, Mostafa Keshavarz.,Bazrafshan, Javad.,Naeimi, Mohammad Hossein.,...&Muller-Scharer, Heinz.(2023).Earlier sowing combined with nitrogen fertilization to adapt to climate change effects on yield of winter wheat in arid environments: Results from a field and modeling study.EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF AGRONOMY,146.
MLA	Moghaddam, Hossein,et al."Earlier sowing combined with nitrogen fertilization to adapt to climate change effects on yield of winter wheat in arid environments: Results from a field and modeling study".EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF AGRONOMY 146(2023).