干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Modelling climate change impacts at a drinking water reservoir in Turkey and implications for reservoir management in semi-arid regions

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DOI	10.1007/s11356-022-23141-2
	Modelling climate change impacts at a drinking water reservoir in Turkey and implications for reservoir management in semi-arid regions
	Aibaidula, Dilibaier; Ates, Nuray; Dadaser-Celik, Filiz
通讯作者	Dadaser-Celik, F
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH
ISSN	0944-1344
EISSN	1614-7499
出版年	2023
卷号	30 期号:5 页码:13582-13604
英文摘要	Climate change can have severe impacts on the water availability in semi-arid regions. In this study, we assessed the impact of climatic changes on water availability in the Altinapa Reservoir Watershed, located in the Konya province, south-central Turkey. Altinapa Reservoir supplies drinking water to Konya, a city of about 2 million population. We investigated possible changes in streamflow and reservoir storage over 2021-2098 under two representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) developed based on GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, and MPI-ESM-MR global circulation models. We used a physically based model (SWAT-Soil and Water Assessment Tool) for understanding the hydrologic response of the basin to climatic changes. Results show that upward trends in air temperatures in the range of 0.01-0.04 degrees C/year and 0.005-0.06 degrees C/year are expected from 2021 to 2098 under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. According to the HadGEM2- ES model, precipitation and streamflow would show a downward trend at a rate of 0.96 mm/year and 0.007 m(3)/s/year under the RCP4.5 scenario and at a rate of 1.62 mm/year and 0.01 m(3)/s/year under the RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. GFDL-ESM2M and MPI-ESM-MR models project upward trends in precipitation and streamflow under the RCP4.5 scenario (in the range of 0.64-1.28 mm/year and 0.0003-0.006 -m3/s/year, respectively), and downward trends under the RCP8.5 scenario (in the range of 0.47-0.76 mm/year and 0.0015-0.003 m(3)/s/year, respectively). Reservoir storage is projected to increase slightly according to GFDL-ESM2M model and decrease according to the HadGEM2-ES, and MPI-ESM-MR models under both scenarios. Precipitation, streamflow, and reservoir storage predictions of GFDL-ESM2M and MPI-ESM-MR models are considerably lower than those observed in the basin in recent decades, showing that water resources will decrease in the future. The changes in water withdrawal patterns could cause further reductions in water availability. Good resilience to climate change can be achieved by a flexible water management system and by reducing water consumption and water losses in the watershed and from the reservoirs.
英文关键词	Climate change Water availability Reservoir storage Streamflow Hydrologic modeling SWAT
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000857690800007
WOS关键词	RIVER-BASIN ; ASSESSMENT-TOOL ; QUALITY ; UNCERTAINTY ; STREAMFLOW ; TRENDS ; TEMPERATURE ; CATCHMENT ; RESOURCES ; SOIL
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/396240
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Aibaidula, Dilibaier,Ates, Nuray,Dadaser-Celik, Filiz. Modelling climate change impacts at a drinking water reservoir in Turkey and implications for reservoir management in semi-arid regions[J],2023,30(5):13582-13604.
APA	Aibaidula, Dilibaier,Ates, Nuray,&Dadaser-Celik, Filiz.(2023).Modelling climate change impacts at a drinking water reservoir in Turkey and implications for reservoir management in semi-arid regions.ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH,30(5),13582-13604.
MLA	Aibaidula, Dilibaier,et al."Modelling climate change impacts at a drinking water reservoir in Turkey and implications for reservoir management in semi-arid regions".ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH 30.5(2023):13582-13604.