干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Multi-scenario dynamic prediction of ecological risk assessment in an arid area of northwest China

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.110727
	Multi-scenario dynamic prediction of ecological risk assessment in an arid area of northwest China
	Gan, Lu; Halik, Umut; Shi, Lei; Welp, Martin
通讯作者	Halik, U
来源期刊	ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS
ISSN	1470-160X
EISSN	1872-7034
出版年	2023
卷号	154
英文摘要	Ecological security is essential for the development of environmental health and human society. However, the driving mechanisms and spatial non-stationarity of ecological risks are still unknown, particularly in arid areas. Thus, this study constructed an ecological risk index (ERI) research framework in arid areas based on land use and socio-economic data from 1980 to 2020 to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution trend, driving mecha-nisms, and spatial non-stationarity of ecological risk and predict the ecological risk under business-as-usual, economic development, and ecological protection scenarios using a patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model. The results show that: (1) cropland and build-up land were expanding, whereas forestland and grassland water bodies were shrinking. Compared with the two development stages from 1980 to 2000 and from 2000 to 2020, cropland increased by 4.73% and 51.52%, respectively, whereas build-up land increased by 12.64% and 106.52%, respectively, indicating rapid development and drastic changes in the past 20 years. (2) With the change in landscape diversity, the regional ecological risks showed an increasing trend, whereas the future ecological risks showed an increasing trend because of the cumulative effect of landscape pattern changes caused by human activities. (3) Moreover, dramatic changes in ecological risk, particularly in areas of intense human activity in build-up land, agricultural land, artificial oases, and mountainous areas. Corresponding to the analysis of driving mechanisms, population, GDP, distance to government, water, and primary roads; have a significant effect on ecological risk, whereas DEM has direct and indirect effect paths. Ultimately, the proposed analysis framework can present the spatiotemporal changes of ecological risks and their influencing mechanisms, which can help develop sustainable development policies.
英文关键词	Ecological risk assessment Driving factors Scenario simulations Arid areas
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001053483100001
WOS关键词	LAND-USE ; QUALITY ; CITIES ; IMPACT ; OASIS
WOS类目	Biodiversity Conservation ; Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/395945
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gan, Lu,Halik, Umut,Shi, Lei,et al. Multi-scenario dynamic prediction of ecological risk assessment in an arid area of northwest China[J],2023,154.
APA	Gan, Lu,Halik, Umut,Shi, Lei,&Welp, Martin.(2023).Multi-scenario dynamic prediction of ecological risk assessment in an arid area of northwest China.ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS,154.
MLA	Gan, Lu,et al."Multi-scenario dynamic prediction of ecological risk assessment in an arid area of northwest China".ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS 154(2023).