干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Spatiotemporal characteristics of meteorological drought variability and trends (1981-2020) over South Asia and the associated large-scale circulation patterns

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-022-06443-6
	Spatiotemporal characteristics of meteorological drought variability and trends (1981-2020) over South Asia and the associated large-scale circulation patterns
	Ullah, Irfan; Ma, Xieyao; Yin, Jun; Omer, Abubaker; Habtemicheal, Birhanu Asmerom; Saleem, Farhan; Iyakaremye, Vedaste; Syed, Sidra; Arshad, Muhammad; Liu, Mengyang
通讯作者	Ma, XY
来源期刊	CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN	0930-7575
EISSN	1432-0894
出版年	2023
卷号	60 期号:7-8 页码:2261-2284
英文摘要	The present study uses observation-based gridded air temperature and precipitation datasets to investigate the spatiotemporal changes in meteorological drought from 1981 to 2020 in South Asia (SA). The drought characteristics i.e., duration, area, frequency, intensity, and severity are calculated using Run theory and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) on annual and seasonal timescales. SA is divided into four homogeneous subregions using the k-means clustering algorithm, while the trends were estimated using Sen's Slope estimator and modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) test. A state-of-the-art Bayesian Dynamic Linear (BDL) model was employed to assess the sub-regional drought variability and their possible links with large-scale atmospheric drivers such as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). It is found that the SA winter season experienced a significant drying long-term trend, especially southwestern and northeastern parts of SA. Drought durations show dipolar patterns with longer drought duration in the southwestern compared to the northern parts of SA. Notably, arid and semi-arid regions have shown significant drying trends in terms of their area, frequency, and severity, implying that meteorological droughts are relatively more severe in those regions. Similarly, the relationship varies over time between drought variability and climate drivers. In particular, the IOD has an impact on drought episodes over southwest SA relative to the northern parts and is mostly affected by the Sea surface temperature (SST) variability. The study results contribute to a better understanding of the meteorological drought characteristics over SA, which is important for disaster risk managers and policymakers to mitigate drought impacts.
英文关键词	Drought Bayesian model Climate change Large-scale drivers IOD South Asia
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000839388000007
WOS关键词	SUMMER MONSOON ; CLIMATE VARIABILITY ; RAINFALL TRENDS ; PAKISTAN ; PRECIPITATION ; REGION ; IMPACTS ; PROJECTIONS ; LINKAGES ; DYNAMICS
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/395773
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ullah, Irfan,Ma, Xieyao,Yin, Jun,et al. Spatiotemporal characteristics of meteorological drought variability and trends (1981-2020) over South Asia and the associated large-scale circulation patterns[J],2023,60(7-8):2261-2284.
APA	Ullah, Irfan.,Ma, Xieyao.,Yin, Jun.,Omer, Abubaker.,Habtemicheal, Birhanu Asmerom.,...&Liu, Mengyang.(2023).Spatiotemporal characteristics of meteorological drought variability and trends (1981-2020) over South Asia and the associated large-scale circulation patterns.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,60(7-8),2261-2284.
MLA	Ullah, Irfan,et al."Spatiotemporal characteristics of meteorological drought variability and trends (1981-2020) over South Asia and the associated large-scale circulation patterns".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 60.7-8(2023):2261-2284.