Arid
DOI10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106920
Changes in aridity and its impact on agricultural lands in East Asia for 1.5 and 2.0 °C temperature rise scenarios
Ziarh, Ghaith Falah; Chung, Eun Sung; Hamed, Mohammed Magdy; Hassan, Maan S.; Shahid, Shamsuddin
通讯作者Ziarh, GF
来源期刊ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
ISSN0169-8095
EISSN1873-2895
出版年2023
卷号293
英文摘要This study aimed to assess the changes in aridity in East Asia (EA) over the next 80 years for the restriction of global warming based on Paris Agreement goals. Eight General Circulation Models (GCMs) that provide simulations for 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C global warming scenarios were used for this purpose. The Penman-Monteith Equation was utilized to calculate potential evapotranspiration (PET). The land-use projections data was used to identify the agricultural lands that aridity could impact. The results showed a likely increase in rainfall and PET in EA over the next 80 years. However, the spatial variability of the relative increase in rainfall and PET would cause an aridity shift in 1.2-9.7% of the total land area. Though most of the area would experience a transition to a wetter climate, nearly 2% of the land would experience a transition to a drier climate. It would cause nearly 4.4 and 6.2 thousand km2 of agricultural land to be converted from semi-arid to arid and 31.1 and 42.2 thousand km2 of land from sub-humid to semi-arid in the early period for 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C temperature rise scenarios, respectively. This indicates nearly one and a half times more expansion of aridity on agricultural land in the early period for only a 0.5 degrees C increase in temperature. A decrease in aridity in the far future for both scenarios would cause a reduction of total arid lands and, thus, its impacts on agriculture. Overall, the study revealed a possible reduction of aridity in EA in the long run if the Paris Agreement is enforced and global warming is limited.
英文关键词Evapotranspiration Aridity Climate change Impacts on agriculture Shared socioeconomic scenarios
类型Article
语种英语
开放获取类型Green Submitted
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:001148187200001
WOS关键词REFERENCE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; SPATIOTEMPORAL TRENDS ; GLOBAL ARIDITY ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; PRECIPITATION ; MONSOON ; INDEX ; BASIN
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/395512
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Ziarh, Ghaith Falah,Chung, Eun Sung,Hamed, Mohammed Magdy,et al. Changes in aridity and its impact on agricultural lands in East Asia for 1.5 and 2.0 °C temperature rise scenarios[J],2023,293.
APA Ziarh, Ghaith Falah,Chung, Eun Sung,Hamed, Mohammed Magdy,Hassan, Maan S.,&Shahid, Shamsuddin.(2023).Changes in aridity and its impact on agricultural lands in East Asia for 1.5 and 2.0 °C temperature rise scenarios.ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,293.
MLA Ziarh, Ghaith Falah,et al."Changes in aridity and its impact on agricultural lands in East Asia for 1.5 and 2.0 °C temperature rise scenarios".ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH 293(2023).
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