干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): A hybrid statistical-dynamical prediction model for summer precipitation in northwestern China based on NCEP CFSv2

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106567
	A hybrid statistical-dynamical prediction model for summer precipitation in northwestern China based on NCEP CFSv2
	Zhu, Yali; Sun, Jianqi; Ma, Jiehua
通讯作者	Zhu, YL
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
ISSN	0169-8095
EISSN	1873-2895
出版年	2023
卷号	283
英文摘要	As a typical arid/semi-arid area, summer rainfall in northwestern China (NWC) is critical for the ecological environment there. The NWC summer rainfall prediction using statistical and dynamical models shows very poor performance. The dynamical model NCEP CFSv2 shows very low prediction skill in NWC summer precipitation. NWC precipitation index (NWC PI) is defined as the regional mean summer precipitation over NWC. This study first investigates the soil moisture and SST (sea surface temperature) signals in the preceding months, and CFSv2 April predicted summer large-scale circulation anomalies significantly related with NWC PI during 1982-2016 (2011 missing). The April soil moisture in the upstream central Asia, and SST in the preceding winter over tropical Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Ocean are identified as predictor candidates in the observation. Besides, six April predicted large-scale circulation factors in CFSv2 are also hired. The potential model predictors are selected generally based on three criteria: where CFSv2 has significant prediction skill, and NWC PI is significantly correlated with the variable in both the observation and its counterpart in CFSv2 prediction. Hybrid models are then constructed based on different predictor combinations. The leave-one-out cross validation illustrates that the hybrid model using three predictors (April soil moisture in the upstream central Asia, April predicted zonal wind over the Maritime Continent, April predicted SLP over the Mediterranean Sea) presents best performance, with anomalies correlation coefficient-ACC of 0.65, percentage of the same sign-PERC 76.5%, relative error-RE 6.97%, and root mean square error-RMSE 0.344 mm/day for NWC PI. The April soil moisture in the upstream central Asia is linked with the summer water vapor flux over NWC, and April predicted zonal wind over the Maritime Continent is related with the large-scale circulation over NWC, while caution must be taken when April predicted SLP over the Mediterranean Sea is used as predictor of NWC PI.
英文关键词	Arid semi-arid area Northwestern China Summer rainfall NCEP CFSv2 Seasonal prediction
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	hybrid
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000904696700002
WOS关键词	SOIL-MOISTURE ANOMALIES ; SEASONAL PREDICTION ; LOWER REACHES ; RAINFALL ; MONSOON ; ENSO ; TELECONNECTION ; MECHANISM ; FEEDBACK ; REGIONS
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/395506
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhu, Yali,Sun, Jianqi,Ma, Jiehua. A hybrid statistical-dynamical prediction model for summer precipitation in northwestern China based on NCEP CFSv2[J],2023,283.
APA	Zhu, Yali,Sun, Jianqi,&Ma, Jiehua.(2023).A hybrid statistical-dynamical prediction model for summer precipitation in northwestern China based on NCEP CFSv2.ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,283.
MLA	Zhu, Yali,et al."A hybrid statistical-dynamical prediction model for summer precipitation in northwestern China based on NCEP CFSv2".ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH 283(2023).