干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Present and Future of Heavy Rain Events in the Sahel and West Africa

Arid

DOI	10.3390/atmos14060965
	Present and Future of Heavy Rain Events in the Sahel and West Africa
	Saley, Inoussa Abdou; Salack, Seyni
通讯作者	Saley, IA
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERE
EISSN	2073-4433
出版年	2023
卷号	14 期号:6
英文摘要	Gridding precipitation datasets for climate information services in the semi-arid regions of West Africa has some advantages due to the limited spatial coverage of rain gauges, the limited accessibility to in situ gauge data, and the important progress in earth observation and climate modelling systems. Can accurate information on the occurrence of heavy precipitation in this area be provided using gridded datasets? Furthermore, what about the future of heavy rain events (HRE) under the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (i.e., SSP126 and SSP370)? To address these questions, daily precipitation records from 17 datasets, including satellite estimates, interpolated rain gauge data, reanalysis, merged products, a regional climate model, and global circulation models, are examined and compared to quality-controlled in situ data from 69 rain gauges evenly distributed across West Africa's semi-arid region. The results show a consensus increase in the occurrence of HRE, between observational and gridded data. All datasets showed three categories of HRE every season, but these categories had lower intensities and an overstated frequency of occurrence in gridded datasets compared to in situ rain gauge data. Eight out of 17 databases (similar to 47%) show significant positive trends and only one showed a significant negative trend, indicating an increase in HRE for all categories in this region. The future evolution of HRE considered under the shared socioeconomic pathways SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0, showed a trend toward the intensification of these events. In fact, the mean of the ensemble of the models showed significant changes toward higher values in the probability distribution function of the future HRE in West Africa, which may likely trigger more floods and landslides in the region. The use of gridded data sets can provide accurate information on the occurrence of heavy precipitation in the West African Sahel. However, it is important to consider the representation of heavy rain events in each data set when monitoring extreme precipitation, although in situ gauge records are preferred to define extreme rainfall locally.
英文关键词	heavy rain events In situ gauge data gridded data Sahel WEST Africa
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001016915100001
WOS关键词	GLOBAL PRECIPITATION ; CLIMATE ; UNCERTAINTIES ; ASSIMILATION ; PERFORMANCE ; RESOLUTION ; PRODUCTS ; ENSEMBLE ; EXTREMES ; WET
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/395474
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Saley, Inoussa Abdou,Salack, Seyni. Present and Future of Heavy Rain Events in the Sahel and West Africa[J],2023,14(6).
APA	Saley, Inoussa Abdou,&Salack, Seyni.(2023).Present and Future of Heavy Rain Events in the Sahel and West Africa.ATMOSPHERE,14(6).
MLA	Saley, Inoussa Abdou,et al."Present and Future of Heavy Rain Events in the Sahel and West Africa".ATMOSPHERE 14.6(2023).