干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Climate change-induced aridity is affecting agriculture in Northeast Italy

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.agsy.2023.103647
	Climate change-induced aridity is affecting agriculture in Northeast Italy
	Straffelini, Eugenio; Tarolli, Paolo
通讯作者	Straffelini, E
来源期刊	AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS
ISSN	0308-521X
EISSN	1873-2267
出版年	2023
卷号	208
英文摘要	CONTEXT: The Mediterranean basin and specifically Northeast Italy are recognised as climate change hotspots. The latter is a key socio-economic area in Europe among the most agriculturally productive. However, increasingly frequent drought periods (typical of drier climates) are threatening agriculture. An extreme event occurred in the summer of 2022. It dramatically affected northern Italy, through high temperatures, water shortages and indirect processes (such as saltwater intrusion in the Po River Delta). OBJECTIVE: The objective is to map and quantify the agricultural areas in Northeast Italy at risk of climate zone shift due to human-induced climate change, providing a comprehensive overview of the main threatened agri-cultural systems and supporting the use of projections through historical data analysis. METHODS: We compared the distribution of current (1980 > 2016) and future (2071 > 2100; RCP8.5 scenario) climate zones for 8 main agricultural systems in 14 key provinces in Northeast Italy. Further analyses were performed on historical data to support future climate projections and to analyse agricultural drought during extreme events: (1) a multi-temporal Aridity Index (AI) to investigate aridification dynamics; (2) a focus on the 2022 event (drought and temperature extremes, a situation that is likely to occur more often in the future), combining a Vegetation Health Index (VHI) with a zonal investigation of high Land Surface Temperature (LST); (3) a climate focus for the Po River Delta cultural landscape. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The results show that the climate in Northeast Italy is evolving towards drier conditions, posing a challenge to agriculture. The Adriatic coast could become an Arid zone, a finding in line with historical observations. Rice fields will be most at risk (76% of their surface could become Arid in the future), as well as the irrigated lands that are essential for food security (around 20% expected in the Arid zone). Worthy iswhat is foreseen for crops on slopes (often not irrigated), which may experience drier summers (60% of the surface). SIGNIFICANCE: We identified the areas at risk of climate change at the farm scale in Northeast Italy, mapping where the threatened fields are located, what their extent is, and which agricultural systems are currently implemented. Such information would facilitate early action, guiding large-scale planning towards more resilient agriculture. Findings could promote sustainable water management plans, open the debate on which crops are worth growing based on future climate, and inspire more localised studies in the design of mitigation measures.
英文关键词	Climate change Italy Agriculture Aridity Remote sensing
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	hybrid, Green Published
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001008793600001
WOS关键词	DROUGHT IMPACT ; ADRIATIC SEA ; PO VALLEY ; CHANGE SCENARIOS ; WATER FOOTPRINT ; CROP YIELD ; TEMPERATURE ; PRECIPITATION ; VARIABILITY ; REGION
WOS类目	Agriculture, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向	Agriculture
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/395014
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Straffelini, Eugenio,Tarolli, Paolo. Climate change-induced aridity is affecting agriculture in Northeast Italy[J],2023,208.
APA	Straffelini, Eugenio,&Tarolli, Paolo.(2023).Climate change-induced aridity is affecting agriculture in Northeast Italy.AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS,208.
MLA	Straffelini, Eugenio,et al."Climate change-induced aridity is affecting agriculture in Northeast Italy".AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS 208(2023).