干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): And we thought the Millennium Drought was bad: Assessing climate variability and change impacts on an Australian dryland wetland using an ecohydrologic emulator

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DOI	10.1016/j.watres.2022.118487
	And we thought the Millennium Drought was bad: Assessing climate variability and change impacts on an Australian dryland wetland using an ecohydrologic emulator
	Quijano-Baron, Juan; Carlier, Rebecca; Rodriguez, Jose F.; Sandi, Steven G.; Saco, Patricia M.; Wen, Li; Kuczera, George
通讯作者	Rodriguez, JF
来源期刊	WATER RESEARCH
ISSN	0043-1354
EISSN	1879-2448
出版年	2022
卷号	218
英文摘要	During the Millennium Drought in southeast Australia (2001-2009), dryland wetlands experienced widespread ecological deterioration, which highlighted their vulnerability to natural climate variability and the potential effects of drying climate change. Here we use 30-year observed streamflow data (1991-2020) and numerical models to assess the impacts of climate variability and climate change on the Macquarie Marshes (the Marshes), a large floodplain wetland complex in the semi-arid region of New South Wales, Australia. A fast ecohydrologic emulator based on network linear programming with side constraints was developed to simulate the spatial and temporal responses of different wetland vegetation types to water regime. The emulator represents the wetland by a series of inter-connected level-pool reservoirs with the volume-discharge relationship obtained from a calibrated quasi-2d hydrodynamic model. The emulator reproduces daily flows and volume with good accuracy (Nash-Sutcliffe statistic ranging from 0.61 to 0.96) with 1/26,000 of the computational effort. We use the emulator to simulate the potential effects of climatic variability on vegetation by running the model over 30 years of observed data and 1000 statistically representative 30-year streamflow time series, which were generated using a stochastic model calibrated to the gauged flows. The collection of results for all 1000 contemporary simulations indicates the Marshes experience severe conditions 43% (+/- 18%) of the time in a 30year period. We then ran an additional 6000 simulations to assess the combined impacts of climate variability and future climate change at the end of the century. For the driest future climates (-60% and -30% reduction in runoff), the Marshes remain in severe condition 89% (+/- 6%) and 63% (+/- 16%) of the time, respectively, while no major differences with respect to the contemporary conditions were found for the wetter future. Our results highlight the importance of quantifying the extent and uncertainty in the degradation of these ecosystems due to climate variability and change for informing management decisions.
英文关键词	Wetlands Climate change Emulator Network linear programming
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000798243500002
WOS关键词	MACQUARIE MARSHES ; FLOODPLAIN ; INUNDATION ; MANAGEMENT ; VEGETATION ; OPTIMIZATION ; PERSISTENCE ; ECOSYSTEMS ; MODELS ; FLOODS
WOS类目	Engineering, Environmental ; Environmental Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/394878
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Quijano-Baron, Juan,Carlier, Rebecca,Rodriguez, Jose F.,et al. And we thought the Millennium Drought was bad: Assessing climate variability and change impacts on an Australian dryland wetland using an ecohydrologic emulator[J],2022,218.
APA	Quijano-Baron, Juan.,Carlier, Rebecca.,Rodriguez, Jose F..,Sandi, Steven G..,Saco, Patricia M..,...&Kuczera, George.(2022).And we thought the Millennium Drought was bad: Assessing climate variability and change impacts on an Australian dryland wetland using an ecohydrologic emulator.WATER RESEARCH,218.
MLA	Quijano-Baron, Juan,et al."And we thought the Millennium Drought was bad: Assessing climate variability and change impacts on an Australian dryland wetland using an ecohydrologic emulator".WATER RESEARCH 218(2022).