干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Hydrometeorological Forecast of a Typical Watershed in an Arid Area Using Ensemble Kalman Filter

Arid

DOI	10.3390/w14233970
	Hydrometeorological Forecast of a Typical Watershed in an Arid Area Using Ensemble Kalman Filter
	He, Ganchang; Chen, Yaning; Fang, Gonghuan; Li, Zhi
通讯作者	Chen, YN
来源期刊	WATER
EISSN	2073-4441
出版年	2022
卷号	14 期号:23
英文摘要	The stationarity test and systematic prediction of hydrometeorological parameters are becoming increasingly important in water resources management. Based on the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and wavelet analysis, this study selects precipitation, evaporation, temperature, and runoff as model variables, builds a model, tests and analyzes the stationarity of the hydrometeorological parameters of the Manas River, and forecasts the selected parameters for two years. The results of the study show that during the 2000-2020 study period, precipitation in the Manas River Basin on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains shows a significant downward trend from 2016 to 2020, with an annual average decline rate of 23.30 mm/a over five years. The proportion of runoff during the flood season also increases, with the statistical probability of an extremely low value of runoff increasing by 37.62% on average. After using wavelet decomposition to provide input to EnKF, the NSE of the model for the prediction of precipitation, evaporation, temperature, and runoff reached 0.86, 0.89, 0.96, and 0.9 respectively. At the same time, the K-S value increases from 0.28 to 0.40, which means that the wavelet analysis technique has great potential as a preprocessing of the Ensemble Kalman filter.
英文关键词	hydrological prediction Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) wavelet analysis Manas River Basin Tianshan Mountains in Central Asia
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000896163000001
WOS关键词	DATA ASSIMILATION ; PART I ; ALGORITHM
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/394863
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	He, Ganchang,Chen, Yaning,Fang, Gonghuan,et al. Hydrometeorological Forecast of a Typical Watershed in an Arid Area Using Ensemble Kalman Filter[J],2022,14(23).
APA	He, Ganchang,Chen, Yaning,Fang, Gonghuan,&Li, Zhi.(2022).Hydrometeorological Forecast of a Typical Watershed in an Arid Area Using Ensemble Kalman Filter.WATER,14(23).
MLA	He, Ganchang,et al."Hydrometeorological Forecast of a Typical Watershed in an Arid Area Using Ensemble Kalman Filter".WATER 14.23(2022).