干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Analyzing and Assessing Dynamic Behavior of a Physical Supply and Demand System for Sustainable Water Management under a Semi-Arid Environment

Arid

DOI	10.3390/w14121939
	Analyzing and Assessing Dynamic Behavior of a Physical Supply and Demand System for Sustainable Water Management under a Semi-Arid Environment
	Mashaly, Ahmed F.; Fernald, Alexander G.
通讯作者	Mashaly, AF
来源期刊	WATER
EISSN	2073-4441
出版年	2022
卷号	14 期号:12
英文摘要	The extensive interest in sustainable water management reflects the extent to which the global water landscape has changed in the past twenty years, which is a natural development of changes in water resources and an increase in the level of imbalance between water supply and demand. In this paper, a simulation model based on system dynamics (SD) methodology was developed to aid sustainable water management efforts in a semi-arid region. Six policy scenarios were used to study, analyze, and assess water management trends in the Southeast region of New Mexico, USA. The modeling process included two phases: calibration (2000-2015) and future prediction (2016-2050). Several statistical criteria were applied to assess the developed model performance. The findings revealed that the simulated outputs were in excellent agreement with the historical data, indicating accurate model simulation. The SD model's determination coefficients ranged from 0.9288 to 0.9936 and the index of agreement values ranged from 0.9397 to 0.9958. Findings for the business-as-usual scenario indicated that total water withdrawals and total population will continue to rise, whereas groundwater storage, agricultural consumptive water use, and total consumptive water use will decrease over the simulated period. Sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulation indicated that cultivated irrigated land change is the most influential parameter affecting groundwater storage, water supply storage change (total withdrawals), agricultural consumptive water use, and total consumptive water use. The changes occurring in the agricultural cultivated area had a great influence on controlling the groundwater system. Overall, the results showed that our SD model has been successful in capturing the system's dynamic behavior, and confirmed its capability in modeling water management issues for policy and decision makers under semi-arid conditions.
英文关键词	system dynamics water management scenario analysis semi-arid region modeling
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000816435700001
WOS关键词	RESOURCES MANAGEMENT ; MODEL ; SIMULATION ; AQUIFER ; IRRIGATION ; DEPLETION ; IMPACT ; RIVER
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/394798
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mashaly, Ahmed F.,Fernald, Alexander G.. Analyzing and Assessing Dynamic Behavior of a Physical Supply and Demand System for Sustainable Water Management under a Semi-Arid Environment[J],2022,14(12).
APA	Mashaly, Ahmed F.,&Fernald, Alexander G..(2022).Analyzing and Assessing Dynamic Behavior of a Physical Supply and Demand System for Sustainable Water Management under a Semi-Arid Environment.WATER,14(12).
MLA	Mashaly, Ahmed F.,et al."Analyzing and Assessing Dynamic Behavior of a Physical Supply and Demand System for Sustainable Water Management under a Semi-Arid Environment".WATER 14.12(2022).