干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Trends of Rainfall Variability and Drought Monitoring Using Standardized Precipitation Index in a Scarcely Gauged Basin of Northern Pakistan

Arid

DOI	10.3390/w14071132
	Trends of Rainfall Variability and Drought Monitoring Using Standardized Precipitation Index in a Scarcely Gauged Basin of Northern Pakistan
	Ul Moazzam, Muhammad Farhan; Rahman, Ghani; Munawar, Saira; Tariq, Aqil; Safdar, Qurratulain; Lee, Byung-Gul
通讯作者	Lee, BG
来源期刊	WATER
EISSN	2073-4441
出版年	2022
卷号	14 期号:7
英文摘要	This study focused on the trends of rainfall variability and drought monitoring in the northern region of Pakistan (Gilgit-Baltistan). Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) model data were used for the period of 1981 to 2020. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was applied to assess the dry and wet conditions during the study period. The Mann-Kendall (MK) and Spearman's rho (SR) trend tests were applied to calculate the trend of drought. A coupled model intercomparison project-global circulation model (CMIP5-GCMs) was used to project the future precipitation in Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) for the 21st century using a multimodel ensemble (MME) technique for representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. From the results, the extreme drought situations were observed in the 12-month SPI series in 1982 in the Diamir, Ghizer, and Gilgit districts, while severe drought in 1982-1983 was observed in Astore, Ghizer, Gilgit, Hunza-Nagar, and Skardu. Similarly, in 2000-2001 severe drought prevailed in Diamir, Ghanche, and Skardu. The results of MK and SR indicate a significant increasing trend of rainfall in the study area, which is showing the conversion of snowfall to rainfall due to climate warming. The future precipitation projections depicted an increase of 4% for the 21st century as compared with the baseline period in the GB region. The results of the midcentury projections depicted an increase in precipitation of about 13%, while future projections for the latter half of the century recorded a decrease in precipitation (about 9%) for both RCPs, which can cause flooding in midcentury and drought in the latter half of the century. The study area is the host of the major glaciers in Pakistan from where the Indus River receives its major tributaries. The area and volume of these glaciers are decreasing due to warming impacts of climate change. Therefore, this study is useful for proper water resource management to cope up with water scarcity in the future.
英文关键词	drought monitoring rainfall variability scarcely gauged basin CHIRPS future projection trend analysis
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000781304100001
WOS关键词	TEMPORAL VARIABILITY ; CLIMATE VARIABILITY ; ARID REGION ; AVHRR DATA ; TEMPERATURE ; MODEL ; VEGETATION ; SPI ; IMPACTS ; CHINA
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/394774
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ul Moazzam, Muhammad Farhan,Rahman, Ghani,Munawar, Saira,et al. Trends of Rainfall Variability and Drought Monitoring Using Standardized Precipitation Index in a Scarcely Gauged Basin of Northern Pakistan[J],2022,14(7).
APA	Ul Moazzam, Muhammad Farhan,Rahman, Ghani,Munawar, Saira,Tariq, Aqil,Safdar, Qurratulain,&Lee, Byung-Gul.(2022).Trends of Rainfall Variability and Drought Monitoring Using Standardized Precipitation Index in a Scarcely Gauged Basin of Northern Pakistan.WATER,14(7).
MLA	Ul Moazzam, Muhammad Farhan,et al."Trends of Rainfall Variability and Drought Monitoring Using Standardized Precipitation Index in a Scarcely Gauged Basin of Northern Pakistan".WATER 14.7(2022).