干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Evaluation and comparison of CMIP6 and CMIP5 model performance in simulating the runoff

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s00704-022-04118-0
	Evaluation and comparison of CMIP6 and CMIP5 model performance in simulating the runoff
	Guo, Hai; Zhan, Chesheng; Ning, Like; Li, Zhonghe; Hu, Shi
通讯作者	Zhan, CS
来源期刊	THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN	0177-798X
EISSN	1434-4483
出版年	2022
卷号	149 期号:3-4 页码:1451-1470
英文摘要	This study evaluates and compares the performance of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and CMIP5 in simulating the runoff on global-scale and eight large-scale basins, over the period 1981-2005 using percent bias (PBIAS), correlation coefficient (CC), root-mean-square error (RMSE), Theil-Sen median trend, and the Taylor diagram. The CMIP models are ranked by comprehensive rating index (MR), which is determined by PBIAS, CC, and RMSE three metrics. Linear Optimal Runoff Aggregate (LORA), Global Runoff Reconstruction (GRUN), and ERA5-Land were selected as reference datasets. LORA was used as the main reference data to evaluate the historical runoff results of CMIP from 1981 to 2012 for three aspects: trend, PBIAS, and uncertainty. Results reveal that (i) CMIP6 models have obviously overvalued on the global and basins (except Amazon and Lena basin); this phenomenon was more prominent in arid and semi-arid areas (Murray-Darling and Nile basin). (ii) Compared with CMIP5 models, CMIP6 models have less uncertainty on the global scale, but it has not made outstanding progress on the basin scale. (iii) CMIP6 multi-model ensemble mean (CMIP6_MMEs) has better simulation effect than most individual models, which reduces the uncertainty among different models to some extent. (iv) There were differences in trends and PBIAS between the three reference datasets at both the global and basin scale. However, the interannual fluctuations of the three datasets were basically the same and have high correlation coefficient (except for ERA5 in the world and Nile basin), which shows that LORA dataset has high reliability. The global comprehensive rating metric (GR) of CMIP6_MMEs was better than CMIP5_MMEs in all metrics, but this result was not found in eight basins. This shows that CMIP6 models has better effect in simulating global runoff and related diagnostic indicators. Implying further improvements are needs for the runoff simulation capability at the basin scale.
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000814477900001
WOS关键词	WATER AVAILABILITY ; NON-STATIONARITY ; MULTIPLE ASPECTS ; GLOBAL CLIMATE ; UNCERTAINTY ; PREDICTION ; ENSEMBLE ; BASIN ; DECOMPOSITION ; SATELLITE
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/394722
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Guo, Hai,Zhan, Chesheng,Ning, Like,et al. Evaluation and comparison of CMIP6 and CMIP5 model performance in simulating the runoff[J],2022,149(3-4):1451-1470.
APA	Guo, Hai,Zhan, Chesheng,Ning, Like,Li, Zhonghe,&Hu, Shi.(2022).Evaluation and comparison of CMIP6 and CMIP5 model performance in simulating the runoff.THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,149(3-4),1451-1470.
MLA	Guo, Hai,et al."Evaluation and comparison of CMIP6 and CMIP5 model performance in simulating the runoff".THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY 149.3-4(2022):1451-1470.