干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): An assessment of the impact threshold and risk of spring-wheat production to climate change in Inner Mongolia, China

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s00704-022-04119-z
	An assessment of the impact threshold and risk of spring-wheat production to climate change in Inner Mongolia, China
	Dong, Zhiqiang; Pan, Zhihua; Xue, Xiaoping; Li, Nan; Chen, Chen; Chen, Yanchun
通讯作者	Pan, ZH
来源期刊	THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN	0177-798X
EISSN	1434-4483
出版年	2022
卷号	149 期号:3-4 页码:1391-1403
英文摘要	Global surface temperature is increasing significantly under climate change with increasingly uneven distribution of precipitation, which has been making an important impact on the sustainable development of the dryland agriculture in semi-arid regions. The Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (IMAR) has the largest area ratio of semi-arid regions in China, and spring wheat is one of its major grain crops, and the negative impacts of climate change pose a serious threat to its production. In order to reduce this threat, we assessed the impact thresholds and risks posed by the main climatic factors to spring-wheat production, and put forward quantitative adaptive countermeasures. The results showed that, from 1961 to 2012, the appropriate impact thresholds of average temperature, precipitation, fertilization level, and water supply level were 15.6 degrees C, 333 mm, 319.5 kg/ha, and 743.7 mm, respectively. Compared with the average values in 1996-2012, the maximum fertilization level and water supply level could be increased by 162.2 kg/ha and 406.5 mm, respectively, to improve the adaptive yield of spring wheat. The risks of adverse impacts of temperature rise, precipitation decrease, and their combined effect on spring-wheat production were found to be 11.1%, 9.3%, and 10.3%, respectively. The whole IMAR showed a high risk of adverse impacts of temperature rise and the combined action of temperature rise and precipitation decrease on spring-wheat production. In particular, the spring-wheat production in the northeastern, eastern, and central areas were found to be at the highest risk to the impacts of climate change. Based on the determined appropriate thresholds of fertilization level and water supply level, it was determined that in the northeastern area, the maximum fertilization level and water supply level could be increased by 229.9 kg/ha and 441.4 mm, respectively, to increase the adaptive yield of spring wheat. In the eastern area, the two factors could be increased by 142.2 kg/ha and 464.3 mm, respectively. In the central area, they could be increased by 242.2 kg/ha and 513.7 mm, respectively. In the southwestern area, they could be increased by 41.4 kg/ha and 201.7 mm, respectively.
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000811948900001
WOS关键词	QUANTITATIVE METHOD ; YIELD ; MANAGEMENT ; SYSTEM ; TRENDS
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/394721
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Dong, Zhiqiang,Pan, Zhihua,Xue, Xiaoping,et al. An assessment of the impact threshold and risk of spring-wheat production to climate change in Inner Mongolia, China[J],2022,149(3-4):1391-1403.
APA	Dong, Zhiqiang,Pan, Zhihua,Xue, Xiaoping,Li, Nan,Chen, Chen,&Chen, Yanchun.(2022).An assessment of the impact threshold and risk of spring-wheat production to climate change in Inner Mongolia, China.THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,149(3-4),1391-1403.
MLA	Dong, Zhiqiang,et al."An assessment of the impact threshold and risk of spring-wheat production to climate change in Inner Mongolia, China".THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY 149.3-4(2022):1391-1403.