干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Analyzing spatial-temporal change of multivariate drought risk based on Bayesian copula: Application to the Balkhash Lake basin

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s00704-022-04062-z
	Analyzing spatial-temporal change of multivariate drought risk based on Bayesian copula: Application to the Balkhash Lake basin
	Yang, X.; Li, Y. P.; Huang, G. H.; Zhang, S. Q.
通讯作者	Li, YP
来源期刊	THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN	0177-798X
EISSN	1434-4483
出版年	2022
卷号	149 期号:1-2 页码:787-804
英文摘要	In the past century, drought events were likely to be frequent and severe in the arid areas under climate change impact. In this study, a Bayesian copula multivariate analysis (BCMA) method is developed for assessing the impact of spatial-temporal variation on drought risk, through coupling Bayesian copula with multivariate analysis. BCMA can reveal the dynamic characteristics of droughts and deal with the uncertainty caused by copula parameters when modeling the dependent structures of variable pairs (duration-severity-affected area). BCMA is applied to the Balkhash Lake basin in Central Asia for assessing multivariate drought risk during 1901-2020. Some major findings can be summarized: (1) in 1901-2020, the basin suffered 53 droughts; the most severe drought occurred from October 1973 to January 1977 (39 months), and 95% of the basin was affected (335,800 km(2)); (2) droughts usually develop in the direction of east-west, and Ili River delta and alluvial plain are the most frequent areas (47.2%) in the basin; (3) droughts show significant seasonality and frequently occur in spring and summer (64.2%), and drought risks of the middle and lower reaches of Ili River are the highest in spring and summer; (4) multivariate characteristics significantly affect drought risk, and drought risk ranges from 1.9 to 18.1% when the guarantee rate is 0.99; (5) the possible causes of drought risk dynamics are meteorological factors (e.g., precipitation and evapotranspiration) and underlying surface factors (e.g., runoff and soil moisture). The findings suggest that droughts in the Balkhash Lake basin are affected by climatic factors, and BCMA can provide methodological support for the studies of drought in other arid regions.
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000795526500001
WOS关键词	CENTRAL-ASIA ; UNCERTAINTY ; INDEX
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/394719
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yang, X.,Li, Y. P.,Huang, G. H.,et al. Analyzing spatial-temporal change of multivariate drought risk based on Bayesian copula: Application to the Balkhash Lake basin[J],2022,149(1-2):787-804.
APA	Yang, X.,Li, Y. P.,Huang, G. H.,&Zhang, S. Q..(2022).Analyzing spatial-temporal change of multivariate drought risk based on Bayesian copula: Application to the Balkhash Lake basin.THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,149(1-2),787-804.
MLA	Yang, X.,et al."Analyzing spatial-temporal change of multivariate drought risk based on Bayesian copula: Application to the Balkhash Lake basin".THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY 149.1-2(2022):787-804.