干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Simulating winter wheat production potential under near-future climate change in arid regions of northeast Iran

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s00704-022-04005-8
	Simulating winter wheat production potential under near-future climate change in arid regions of northeast Iran
	Saberali, Seyed Farhad; Shirmohammadi-Aliakbarkhani, Zahra; Nasrabadi, Hossein Nastari
通讯作者	Saberali, SF
来源期刊	THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN	0177-798X
EISSN	1434-4483
出版年	2022
卷号	148 期号:3-4 页码:1217-1238
英文摘要	Water scarcity is the key challenge in arid regions, which exacerbates under climate change (CC) and must be considered to assess the impacts of CC on cropping systems. A climate-crop modeling approach was employed by using the CSM-CERES-Wheat model in some arid regions of northeast Iran to project the effects of CC on irrigated winter wheat production. Current climate data for 1990-2019 and climate projections of three climate models for the near-future climate period of 2021-2050 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios were used to run the crop model. Two irrigation scenarios with different irrigation efficiencies were also simulated to investigate the impacts of water scarcity associated with changing climate and irrigation management on winter wheat productivity. Results indicated that mean temperature is projected to increase in the range of 1.74-2.73 degrees C during the reproductive growth period of winter wheat over the study areas. The precipitation projections also indicated that the precipitation rates would decrease over most of the wheat-growing period. The length of the vegetative growth period will extend in some regions and shorten in others under the near future climate period due to a cooling and warming trend, respectively. However, the grain filling duration will be reduced by about 2-4 days across all regions. The mean seasonal potential evapotranspiration is expected to decrease by about 24 mm from 2021 to 2050 in Mashhad, Sabzevar, and Torbat-e Jam. A mean overall reduction in winter wheat yield due to future climate conditions would be about 12.3% across the study areas. However, an increase of 15-30% in the irrigation efficiency will be able to offset yield reductions associated with limited water supply under future climate scenarios. The results suggest that CC will exacerbate limited irrigation water resource availability, so implementing high-efficiency irrigation systems should be a priority to adapt to climate change in the arid cropping system of north-east of Iran.
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000765644200001
WOS关键词	CHANGE IMPACTS ; HEAT-STRESS ; TEMPERATURE ; YIELD ; IRRIGATION ; DROUGHT ; ADAPTATION ; GROWTH ; CROPS ; WATER
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/394715
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Saberali, Seyed Farhad,Shirmohammadi-Aliakbarkhani, Zahra,Nasrabadi, Hossein Nastari. Simulating winter wheat production potential under near-future climate change in arid regions of northeast Iran[J],2022,148(3-4):1217-1238.
APA	Saberali, Seyed Farhad,Shirmohammadi-Aliakbarkhani, Zahra,&Nasrabadi, Hossein Nastari.(2022).Simulating winter wheat production potential under near-future climate change in arid regions of northeast Iran.THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,148(3-4),1217-1238.
MLA	Saberali, Seyed Farhad,et al."Simulating winter wheat production potential under near-future climate change in arid regions of northeast Iran".THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY 148.3-4(2022):1217-1238.