干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Towards an integrated system modeling of water scarcity with projected changes in climate and socioeconomic conditions

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.spc.2022.07.023
	Towards an integrated system modeling of water scarcity with projected changes in climate and socioeconomic conditions
	Dehghani, S.; Bavani, A. R. Massah; Roozbahani, A.; Gohari, A.; Berndtsson, R.
通讯作者	Bavani, ARM
来源期刊	SUSTAINABLE PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION
ISSN	2352-5509
出版年	2022
卷号	33 页码:543-556
英文摘要	Water scarcity is one of the major challenges in semi-arid and arid areas. Drivers for water scarcity include cli-mate change, population growth, economic, and agricultural development. This paper presents a framework for assessing water scarcity under the impact of climate, industry, and socio-economic changes in the Qazvin Plain, Iran. A system dynamics model is developed and calibrated using historical data to evaluate the effects of the projected drivers on water scarcity in 2025-2054. A Bayesian averaging model was used to manage the un-certainty in the GFDL, INM, IPSL, MPI-ESM1-2, and MRI.MRI-ESM2-0 climate projections under the two future SSP126 and SSP585 (shared socioeconomic pathways) scenarios. The results demonstrate that the water scarcity index (with a minimum of 0 and a maximum of 1) is about 0.4 and 0.7 in SSP126 and SSP585, respectively, which may severely affect agricultural development. On the other hand, the industry, domestic, and service sectors are more resilient to these variations with no probable major effects on water scarcity. However, the stress on the agricultural sector may cause migration of the workforce to industry. Policymakers must focus on implementing appropriate adaptation strategies for the agricultural sector to prepare for unpredictable shocks to the system. (c) 2022 Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of Institution of Chemical Engineers.
英文关键词	Water scarcity System dynamic modeling Hydrology Agriculture Industry
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000838233800001
WOS关键词	ADAPTIVE CAPACITY ; FRAMEWORK ; BASIN ; INDICATORS ; PATHWAYS ; IMPACT ; RISK
WOS类目	Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Environmental Studies
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/394707
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Dehghani, S.,Bavani, A. R. Massah,Roozbahani, A.,et al. Towards an integrated system modeling of water scarcity with projected changes in climate and socioeconomic conditions[J],2022,33:543-556.
APA	Dehghani, S.,Bavani, A. R. Massah,Roozbahani, A.,Gohari, A.,&Berndtsson, R..(2022).Towards an integrated system modeling of water scarcity with projected changes in climate and socioeconomic conditions.SUSTAINABLE PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION,33,543-556.
MLA	Dehghani, S.,et al."Towards an integrated system modeling of water scarcity with projected changes in climate and socioeconomic conditions".SUSTAINABLE PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION 33(2022):543-556.