干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Response of Runoff to Meteorological Factors Based on Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive Model with Stochastic Volatility in Arid and Semi-Arid Area of Weihe River Basin

Arid

DOI	10.3390/su14126989
	Response of Runoff to Meteorological Factors Based on Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive Model with Stochastic Volatility in Arid and Semi-Arid Area of Weihe River Basin
	Zeng, Wenying; Song, Songbai; Kang, Yan; Gao, Xuan; Ma, Rui
通讯作者	Song, SB
来源期刊	SUSTAINABILITY
EISSN	2071-1050
出版年	2022
卷号	14 期号:12
英文摘要	This study explores the response characteristics of runoff to the variability of meteorological factors. A modified vector autoregressive (VAR) model is proposed by combining time-varying parameters (TVP) and stochastic volatility (SV). Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used to estimate parameters. The TVP-SV-VAR model of daily runoff response to the variability of meteorological factors is established and applied to the daily runoff series from the Linjiacun hydrological station, Shaanxi Province, China. It is found that the posterior estimates of the stochastic volatility of the four variables fluctuate significantly with time, and the variance fluctuations of runoff and precipitation have strong synchronicity. The simultaneous impact of precipitation and evaporation on the pulse of runoff is close to 0. Runoff has a positive impulse response to precipitation, which decreases as the lag time increases, and a negative impulse response to temperature and evaporation with fluctuation. The response speed is precipitation > evaporation > temperature. The TVP-SV-VAR model avoids the hypothesis of homoscedasticity of variance and allows the variance to be randomly variable, which significantly improves the analysis performance. It provides theoretical support for the study of runoff response and water resource management under the conditions of climate change.
英文关键词	TVP-SV-VAR model Markov chain Monte Carlo simultaneous impact lag impact Linjiacun hydrological station
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000816790300001
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS ; STREAMFLOW EXTREMES ; SENSITIVITY ; CYCLE
WOS类目	Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/394598
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zeng, Wenying,Song, Songbai,Kang, Yan,et al. Response of Runoff to Meteorological Factors Based on Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive Model with Stochastic Volatility in Arid and Semi-Arid Area of Weihe River Basin[J],2022,14(12).
APA	Zeng, Wenying,Song, Songbai,Kang, Yan,Gao, Xuan,&Ma, Rui.(2022).Response of Runoff to Meteorological Factors Based on Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive Model with Stochastic Volatility in Arid and Semi-Arid Area of Weihe River Basin.SUSTAINABILITY,14(12).
MLA	Zeng, Wenying,et al."Response of Runoff to Meteorological Factors Based on Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive Model with Stochastic Volatility in Arid and Semi-Arid Area of Weihe River Basin".SUSTAINABILITY 14.12(2022).