干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Are Global Environmental Uncertainties Inevitable? Measuring Desertification for the SDGs

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DOI	10.3390/su14074063
	Are Global Environmental Uncertainties Inevitable? Measuring Desertification for the SDGs
	Grainger, Alan
通讯作者	Grainger, A
来源期刊	SUSTAINABILITY
EISSN	2071-1050
出版年	2022
卷号	14 期号:7
英文摘要	Continuing uncertainty about the present magnitudes of global environmental change phenomena limits scientific understanding of human impacts on Planet Earth, and the quality of scientific advice to policy makers on how to tackle these phenomena. Yet why global environmental uncertainties are so great, why they persist, how their magnitudes differ from one phenomenon to another, and whether they can be reduced is poorly understood. To address these questions, a new tool, the Uncertainty Assessment Framework (UAF), is proposed that builds on previous research by dividing sources of environmental uncertainty into categories linked to features inherent in phenomena, and insufficient capacity to conceptualize and measure phenomena. Applying the UAF shows that, based on its scale, complexity, areal variability and turnover time, desertification is one of the most inherently uncertain global environmental change phenomena. Present uncertainty about desertification is also very high and persistent: the Uncertainty Score of a time series of five estimates of the global extent of desertification shows limited change and has a mean of 6.8, on a scale from 0 to 8, based on the presence of four conceptualization uncertainties (terminological difficulties, underspecification, understructuralization and using proxies) and four measurement uncertainties (random errors, systemic errors, scalar deficiencies and using subjective judgment). This suggests that realization of the Land Degradation Neutrality (LDN) Target 15.3 of the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 15 (Life on Land) will be difficult to monitor in dry areas. None of the estimates in the time series has an Uncertainty Score of 2 when, according to the UAF, evaluation by statistical methods alone would be appropriate. This supports claims that statistical methods have limitations for evaluating very uncertain phenomena. Global environmental uncertainties could be reduced by devising better rules for constructing global environmental information which integrate conceptualization and measurement. A set of seven rules derived from the UAF is applied here to show how to measure desertification, demonstrating that uncertainty about it is not inevitable. Recent review articles have advocated using 'big data' to fill national data gaps in monitoring LDN and other SDG 15 targets, but an evaluation of a sample of three exemplar studies using the UAF still gives a mean Uncertainty Score of 4.7, so this approach will not be straightforward.
英文关键词	uncertainty evaluation desertification global change Earth observation planetary measurement Land Degradation Neutrality Sustainable Development Goals
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold, Green Published
收录类别	SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000781276400001
WOS关键词	SALT-AFFECTED SOILS ; LAND DEGRADATION ; WATERLOGGED AREAS ; DECISION-MAKING ; FOREST ; KNOWLEDGE ; SCIENCE ; DESERT ; SAHEL ; INFORMATION
WOS类目	Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/394561
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Grainger, Alan. Are Global Environmental Uncertainties Inevitable? Measuring Desertification for the SDGs[J],2022,14(7).
APA	Grainger, Alan.(2022).Are Global Environmental Uncertainties Inevitable? Measuring Desertification for the SDGs.SUSTAINABILITY,14(7).
MLA	Grainger, Alan."Are Global Environmental Uncertainties Inevitable? Measuring Desertification for the SDGs".SUSTAINABILITY 14.7(2022).

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