干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Projections of precipitation and temperature in Southern Iraq using a LARS-WG Stochastic weather generator

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.pce.2022.103224
	Projections of precipitation and temperature in Southern Iraq using a LARS-WG Stochastic weather generator
	Khalaf, Rasul M.; Hussein, H. H.; Hassan, Waqed H.; Mohammed, Zaid M.; Nile, Basim K.
通讯作者	Hassan, WH
来源期刊	PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY OF THE EARTH
ISSN	1474-7065
EISSN	1873-5193
出版年	2022
卷号	128
英文摘要	Iraq is located in the Middle East, a climatic region distinguished by arid and semi-arid environments and which is expected being more susceptible to possible effects of global warming and climate change. In current research, a stochastic weather generator, LARS-WG 6.0, was utilized to simulate historical and projected future daily climatic data and the appropriateness of the model to project daily temperature and daily precipitation. Considering the enormous uncertainties associated with future climate projections, five general circulation models (GCMs), MIROC5, CanESM2, HadGEM2-ES, NorESM1-M, and CSIRO-Mk3.6.0, which represent the most suitable models for the region according to previous studies, were utilized to project the future climate depending on two important scenarios of emissions, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, across the current century by three periods. The climate data from six meteorological stations located in Southern Iraq were used to validate the model, which was based on historical data spanning thirty years (1980-2010). According to the findings, the yearly maximum temperature will rise based on the generated predictions at the end of the twenty-first century by 1.32-3.94 degrees C under RCP4.5 and 1.50-5.92 degrees C under RCP8.5 for all stations studied. For precipitation, the model projections show that there are various trends over all the GCMs used. This denotes the high level of uncertainty of the precipitation prediction if applied to one model only, as some models, e.g., CanESM2, predict an increase in precipitation while other models, e.g., MIROC5, refer to a decreasing trend or no change in precipitation in the future. Changes in rainfall and temperature will have a big effect on how much water is available in the south of Iraq, especially in the marsh and agricultural areas, which will face desertification, water shortages, and other environmental problems.
英文关键词	Climate change GCM LARS-WG Wetlands
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001025428600002
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/393941
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Khalaf, Rasul M.,Hussein, H. H.,Hassan, Waqed H.,et al. Projections of precipitation and temperature in Southern Iraq using a LARS-WG Stochastic weather generator[J],2022,128.
APA	Khalaf, Rasul M.,Hussein, H. H.,Hassan, Waqed H.,Mohammed, Zaid M.,&Nile, Basim K..(2022).Projections of precipitation and temperature in Southern Iraq using a LARS-WG Stochastic weather generator.PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY OF THE EARTH,128.
MLA	Khalaf, Rasul M.,et al."Projections of precipitation and temperature in Southern Iraq using a LARS-WG Stochastic weather generator".PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY OF THE EARTH 128(2022).