干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Predictive validity in drug discovery: what it is, why it matters and how to improve it

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DOI	10.1038/s41573-022-00552-x
	Predictive validity in drug discovery: what it is, why it matters and how to improve it
	Scannell, Jack W.; Bosley, James; Hickman, John A.; Dawson, Gerard R.; Truebel, Hubert; Ferreira, Guilherme S.; Richards, Duncan; Treherne, J. Mark
通讯作者	Scannell, JW
来源期刊	NATURE REVIEWS DRUG DISCOVERY
ISSN	1474-1776
EISSN	1474-1784
出版年	2022
卷号	21 期号:12 页码:915-931
英文摘要	Successful drug discovery is like finding oases of safety and efficacy in chemical and biological deserts. Screens in disease models, and other decision tools used in drug research and development (R&D), point towards oases when they score therapeutic candidates in a way that correlates with clinical utility in humans. Otherwise, they probably lead in the wrong direction. This line of thought can be quantified by using decision theory, in which 'predictive validity' is the correlation coefficient between the output of a decision tool and clinical utility across therapeutic candidates. Analyses based on this approach reveal that the detectability of good candidates is extremely sensitive to predictive validity, because the deserts are big and oases small. Both history and decision theory suggest that predictive validity is under-managed in drug R&D, not least because it is so hard to measure before projects succeed or fail later in the process. This article explains the influence of predictive validity on R&D productivity and discusses methods to evaluate and improve it, with the aim of supporting the application of more effective decision tools and catalysing investment in their creation.
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	Green Submitted
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000864227500001
WOS关键词	TYROSINE KINASE INHIBITORS ; ENGINEERED MOUSE MODELS ; CANCER-CELL BIOLOGY ; C VIRUS REPLICONS ; HEPATITIS-C ; ISCHEMIC-STROKE ; DEVELOPMENT PRODUCTIVITY ; CLONAL EVOLUTION ; CHEMICAL SPACE ; REPRODUCIBILITY
WOS类目	Biotechnology & Applied Microbiology ; Pharmacology & Pharmacy
WOS研究方向	Biotechnology & Applied Microbiology ; Pharmacology & Pharmacy
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/393856
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Scannell, Jack W.,Bosley, James,Hickman, John A.,et al. Predictive validity in drug discovery: what it is, why it matters and how to improve it[J],2022,21(12):915-931.
APA	Scannell, Jack W..,Bosley, James.,Hickman, John A..,Dawson, Gerard R..,Truebel, Hubert.,...&Treherne, J. Mark.(2022).Predictive validity in drug discovery: what it is, why it matters and how to improve it.NATURE REVIEWS DRUG DISCOVERY,21(12),915-931.
MLA	Scannell, Jack W.,et al."Predictive validity in drug discovery: what it is, why it matters and how to improve it".NATURE REVIEWS DRUG DISCOVERY 21.12(2022):915-931.