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DOI	10.1007/s11069-022-05341-8
	Projected changes in meteorological drought over East Africa inferred from bias-adjusted CMIP6 models
	Ayugi, Brian; Shilenje, Zablon Weku; Babaousmail, Hassen; Sian, Kenny T. C. Lim Kam; Mumo, Richard; Dike, Victor Nnamdi; Iyakaremye, Vedaste; Chehbouni, Abdelghani; Ongoma, Victor
通讯作者	Ongoma, V
来源期刊	NATURAL HAZARDS
ISSN	0921-030X
EISSN	1573-0840
出版年	2022
卷号	113 期号:2 页码:1151-1176
英文摘要	The ongoing global warming has caused unprecedented changes in the climate system, leading to an increase in the intensity and frequency of weather and climate extremes. This study uses the sixth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) data to investigate projected changes in drought events over East Africa (EA) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-4.0, and SSP5-8.5). The CMIP6 data are bias-corrected using a quantile mapping method, with the Climatic Research Unit's precipitation dataset as reference. Drought is quantified using the standardized precipitation index and different measures of drought are estimated: drought duration, drought frequency, drought severity, and drought intensity. Evaluating the accuracy and reliability of historical data before and after bias correction demonstrates the importance of the approach. The overall distribution after bias correction depicts a close agreement with observation. Moreover, the multi-model ensemble mean demonstrate superiority over individual Global Circulation Models. Projected future changes show enhancement in precipitation over most parts of EA in the far future under different SSP scenarios. However, the arid and semi-arid regions are expected to receive less amount of precipitation, whereas the highlands and lake regions are expected to receive a larger amount of precipitation increase. Furthermore, the dry areas of EA are likely to experience more frequent drought events with longer duration, stronger intensity, and severity in the far future. Overall, this study identifies possible drought hotspots over EA, enabling early preparation for such events.
英文关键词	Precipitation Drought Climate change Quantile mapping SSP East Africa
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	Green Published, Bronze, Green Submitted
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000781230100002
WOS关键词	REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL ; PRECIPITATION EXTREMES ; WATER-RESOURCES ; RIVER-BASIN ; TEMPERATURE ; VARIABILITY ; RAINFALL ; MULTIMODEL ; INDEXES ; STRATEGIES
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/393839
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ayugi, Brian,Shilenje, Zablon Weku,Babaousmail, Hassen,et al. Projected changes in meteorological drought over East Africa inferred from bias-adjusted CMIP6 models[J],2022,113(2):1151-1176.
APA	Ayugi, Brian.,Shilenje, Zablon Weku.,Babaousmail, Hassen.,Sian, Kenny T. C. Lim Kam.,Mumo, Richard.,...&Ongoma, Victor.(2022).Projected changes in meteorological drought over East Africa inferred from bias-adjusted CMIP6 models.NATURAL HAZARDS,113(2),1151-1176.
MLA	Ayugi, Brian,et al."Projected changes in meteorological drought over East Africa inferred from bias-adjusted CMIP6 models".NATURAL HAZARDS 113.2(2022):1151-1176.