干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Cropland Exposed to Drought Is Overestimated without Considering the CO2 Effect in the Arid Climatic Region of China

Arid

DOI	10.3390/land11060881
	Cropland Exposed to Drought Is Overestimated without Considering the CO2 Effect in the Arid Climatic Region of China
	Jiang, Shan; Zhou, Jian; Wang, Guojie; Lin, Qigen; Chen, Ziyan; Wang, Yanjun; Su, Buda
通讯作者	Su, BD
来源期刊	LAND
EISSN	2073-445X
出版年	2022
卷号	11 期号:6
英文摘要	Drought seriously restricts people's lives and social-economic development. An accurate understanding of the evolution of drought characteristics and future changes in cultivated land exposure can reduce the risk of drought. There is evidence that increased CO2 concentrations alter the physiological properties of vegetation and, thus, affect drought evolution. In this study, both changes and differences in drought (i.e., characteristics and cropland exposure) with and without the CO2 effect over the arid region of China are investigated, using seven CMIP6 outputs and land-use under seven shared-socioeconomic-pathway (SSP)-based scenarios. The results show that: (1) drier conditions will be more severe in 2015-2100 under SSP5-8.5, especially if the CO2 effect is neglected. Moreover, the CO2 effect will increase with increasing emission concentrations; (2) drought intensity will be greater than in the baseline period (1995-2014, approximately -1.45) but weaker than that without the CO2 effect under all scenarios; (3) drought frequency will decrease, and will generally decline faster if the CO2 effect is not considered; (4) drought duration will increase and the difference between the presence and absence of the CO2 effect will always be smallest under SSP1-1.9 and largest under SSP5-8.5; (5) drought acreage will also increase, and neglecting the CO2 effect is always higher than that considering CO2. The difference between the two algorithms will increase with time; and (6) cropland exposure to drought will increase, and can even reach 669,000 km(2) and 524,000 km(2) considering and ignoring the CO2 effect, respectively. Our findings suggest that ignoring CO2 in drought evaluations will result in significant overestimations of drought projections.
英文关键词	drought potential evapotranspiration CO2 effect cropland exposure arid region
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SSCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000818267900001
WOS关键词	GREENHOUSE-GAS CONCENTRATIONS ; AREA-DURATION ANALYSIS ; POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; NORTHWEST CHINA ; PRECIPITATION ; RESPONSES ; IMPACTS ; PLANT ; WATER
WOS类目	Environmental Studies
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/393671
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jiang, Shan,Zhou, Jian,Wang, Guojie,et al. Cropland Exposed to Drought Is Overestimated without Considering the CO2 Effect in the Arid Climatic Region of China[J],2022,11(6).
APA	Jiang, Shan.,Zhou, Jian.,Wang, Guojie.,Lin, Qigen.,Chen, Ziyan.,...&Su, Buda.(2022).Cropland Exposed to Drought Is Overestimated without Considering the CO2 Effect in the Arid Climatic Region of China.LAND,11(6).
MLA	Jiang, Shan,et al."Cropland Exposed to Drought Is Overestimated without Considering the CO2 Effect in the Arid Climatic Region of China".LAND 11.6(2022).