干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): An investigation of the efficacy of different statistical models in malaria forecasting in the semi-arid regions of Gujarat, India

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DOI	10.4103/0972-9062.355959
	An investigation of the efficacy of different statistical models in malaria forecasting in the semi-arid regions of Gujarat, India
	Yadav, Chander Prakash; Baharia, Rajendra; Ranjha, Ritesh; Hussain, Syed Shah Areeb; Singh, Kuldeep; Faizi, Nafis; Sharma, Amit
通讯作者	Yadav, CP
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF VECTOR BORNE DISEASES
ISSN	0972-9062
出版年	2022
卷号	59 期号:4 页码:337-347
英文摘要	Background & objectives: Robust forecasting of malaria cases is desirable as we are approaching towards malaria elimination in India.Methods enabling robust forecasting and timely case detection in unstable transmission areas are the need of the hour.Methods: Forecasting efficacy of the eight most prominent statistical models that are based on three statistical methods: Generalized linear model (Model A and Model B), Smoothing method (Model C), and SARIMA (Model D to model H) were compared using last twelve years (2008-19) monthly malaria data of two districts (Kheda and Anand) of Gujarat state of India.Results: The SARIMA Model F was found the most appropriate when forecasted for 2017 and 2018 using model building data sets 1 and 2, respectively, for both the districts: Kheda and Anand. Model H followed by model C were the two models found appropriate in terms of point estimates for 2019. Still, we regretted these two because confidence intervals from these models are wider that they do not have any forecasting utility. Model F is the third one in terms of point prediction but gives a relatively better confidence interval. Therefore, model F was considered the most appropriate for the year 2019 for both districts.Interpretation & conclusion: Model F was found relatively more appropriate than others and can be used to forecast malaria cases in both districts.
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000933483500005
WOS关键词	HIGHLANDS
WOS类目	Infectious Diseases ; Parasitology ; Tropical Medicine
WOS研究方向	Infectious Diseases ; Parasitology ; Tropical Medicine
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/393628
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yadav, Chander Prakash,Baharia, Rajendra,Ranjha, Ritesh,et al. An investigation of the efficacy of different statistical models in malaria forecasting in the semi-arid regions of Gujarat, India[J],2022,59(4):337-347.
APA	Yadav, Chander Prakash.,Baharia, Rajendra.,Ranjha, Ritesh.,Hussain, Syed Shah Areeb.,Singh, Kuldeep.,...&Sharma, Amit.(2022).An investigation of the efficacy of different statistical models in malaria forecasting in the semi-arid regions of Gujarat, India.JOURNAL OF VECTOR BORNE DISEASES,59(4),337-347.
MLA	Yadav, Chander Prakash,et al."An investigation of the efficacy of different statistical models in malaria forecasting in the semi-arid regions of Gujarat, India".JOURNAL OF VECTOR BORNE DISEASES 59.4(2022):337-347.