干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): The Shrinkage of Lake Lop Nur in the Twentieth Century: A Comprehensive Ecohydrological Analysis

Arid

DOI	10.1175/JHM-D-21-0217.1
	The Shrinkage of Lake Lop Nur in the Twentieth Century: A Comprehensive Ecohydrological Analysis
	Cai, Danlu; Yu, Lijun; Zhu, Jianfeng; Fraedrich, Klaus; Guan, Yanning; Sielmann, Frank; Zhang, Chunyan; Yu, Min
通讯作者	Cai, DL ; Yu, LJ
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY
ISSN	1525-755X
EISSN	1525-7541
出版年	2022
卷号	23 期号:8 页码:1245-1255
英文摘要	A comprehensive ecohydrological analysis is designed to understand the formation and evolution of lake Lop Nur and the environmental change over the Tarim River basin. Three temporal scales from century-based climatological mean to decade-based quasi-steady state change and to annual-scale-based abrupt change test are included. Combining the Budyko and Tomer-Schilling framework, this research first analyzes hydroclimatic and ecohydrological resistance/resilience conditions, then attributes observed changes to external/climate impact or to internal/anthropogenic activities, and finally diagnoses the possible tipping point on ecohydrological dynamics. (i) The arid regions reveal less sensitivity in terms of low variabilities of excess water W and energy U and show high resilience, which will more likely stay the same pattern in the future. (ii) Present towns situated in the semiarid regions with a natural hydraulic linkage with the mainstream of the Tarim River show a higher sensitivity and likelihood to be affected if drier scenarios occurred in the future. (iii) The attribution from two subsequent quasi-steady states indicates increasing effects of the anthropogenic activities increase (1961-80 versus 1981-2000) and provides climatical evidence that the central Tarim River basin was getting wetter before 1960 and then kept drying afterward. (iv) In the Kongqi subcatchment, the excess water reveals a significant decrease-then-increase evolution, from which the years with abrupt changes are observed in the 1960s. Generally, both points iii and iv are in agreement with that the closed-basin lake Lop Nur desiccation until the 1970s and its connection with the eastern part of the Taklamakan Sand Sea.
英文关键词	Atmosphere-land interaction Climate change Hydrology Ecological models Annual variations
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	Bronze
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000848276400003
WOS关键词	TARIM RIVER-BASIN ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; WATER-RESOURCES ; XINJIANG ; DROUGHT ; ATTRIBUTION ; DYNAMICS ; IMPACT ; CHINA ; TESTS
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/393536
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Cai, Danlu,Yu, Lijun,Zhu, Jianfeng,et al. The Shrinkage of Lake Lop Nur in the Twentieth Century: A Comprehensive Ecohydrological Analysis[J],2022,23(8):1245-1255.
APA	Cai, Danlu.,Yu, Lijun.,Zhu, Jianfeng.,Fraedrich, Klaus.,Guan, Yanning.,...&Yu, Min.(2022).The Shrinkage of Lake Lop Nur in the Twentieth Century: A Comprehensive Ecohydrological Analysis.JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY,23(8),1245-1255.
MLA	Cai, Danlu,et al."The Shrinkage of Lake Lop Nur in the Twentieth Century: A Comprehensive Ecohydrological Analysis".JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY 23.8(2022):1245-1255.