干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Real-time methods for short and medium-term evapotranspiration forecasting using dynamic crop coefficient and historical threshold

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127414
	Real-time methods for short and medium-term evapotranspiration forecasting using dynamic crop coefficient and historical threshold
	Han, Xin; Zhou, Qingyun; Zhang, Baozhong; Che, Zheng; Wei, Zheng; Qiu, Rangjian; Chen, He; Li, Yinong; Du, Taisheng
通讯作者	Zhang, BZ
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
ISSN	0022-1694
EISSN	1879-2707
出版年	2022
卷号	606
英文摘要	Crop evapotranspiration (ETc) plays a fundamental role in agronomic and water resource management. Accurate forecasting of ETc is a major challenge for agricultural researchers and experts. Based on the measured ETc of the Eddy Covariance system and weather forecast data (1-15 d: short and medium-term) in North China, the realtime short (1-7 d) and medium (8-15 d) term ETc forecast models were developed by coupling with the dynamic crop coefficient and modifying the historical threshold. The results demonstrated that compared with the single crop coefficient model recommended by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO-56, M1), the M2 model (a modification of the M1 model developed using the dynamic crop coefficient) accurately forecasted the winter wheat and summer maize ETc, with an increased accuracy of 11%. Moreover, the ETc forecasting accuracy using the M2 model for short and medium-term was over 77%, of which the short-term accuracy was higher (greater than84%). The ETc forecasting accuracy increased with the decrease in the forecast period at different growth stages. Further, the short and medium-term accuracies of M3 model (a modification of the M2 model developed by incorporating the historical threshold) were over 81%, of which the accuracy of the 1 d forecast period was approximately 95%, which was 6% higher than that of the M2 model; the root mean square error and the mean absolute error were reduced by 0.1 mm d(-1) and 0.11 mm d(-1), respectively. Thus, these results indicated that the M3 model, which was developed by integrating the dynamic crop coefficient and the historical empirical threshold, can predict short and medium-term ETc more accurately.
英文关键词	Crop evapotranspiration Forecasting Dynamic crop coefficient Historical threshold
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000765986600001
WOS关键词	HARGREAVES-SAMANI EQUATION ; ARID REGION ; WATER-USE ; MAIZE ; CALIBRATION ; CLIMATE ; BALANCE ; COTTON ; MODEL ; SOIL
WOS类目	Engineering, Civil ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/393474
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Han, Xin,Zhou, Qingyun,Zhang, Baozhong,et al. Real-time methods for short and medium-term evapotranspiration forecasting using dynamic crop coefficient and historical threshold[J],2022,606.
APA	Han, Xin.,Zhou, Qingyun.,Zhang, Baozhong.,Che, Zheng.,Wei, Zheng.,...&Du, Taisheng.(2022).Real-time methods for short and medium-term evapotranspiration forecasting using dynamic crop coefficient and historical threshold.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,606.
MLA	Han, Xin,et al."Real-time methods for short and medium-term evapotranspiration forecasting using dynamic crop coefficient and historical threshold".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 606(2022).