干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Risk assessment of water resource shortages in the Aksu River basin of northwest China under climate change

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.114394
	Risk assessment of water resource shortages in the Aksu River basin of northwest China under climate change
	Yang, Peng; Zhang, Shengqing; Xia, Jun; Chen, Yaning; Zhang, Yongyong; Cai, Wei; Wang, Wenyu; Wang, Huaijun; Luo, Xiangang; Chen, Xi
通讯作者	Yang, P ; Xia, J
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
ISSN	0301-4797
EISSN	1095-8630
出版年	2022
卷号	305
英文摘要	As most of the runoff resulting from snow-ice melt is related to climate change factors in the arid region of northwest China, the risk to water resource systems threatens the socio-economic and ecological environment and is becoming increasingly prevalent. Therefore, we explored the risks of water resource shortages for different periods (2010, 2020, and 2030) in the Aksu River basin (ARB) in the northwest arid region of China by reconstructing a risk model based on the framework proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) with an improved vulnerability (V) module and a more suitable hazard probability in the cost module. The major conclusions are as follows: (1) the simulation of the Community Land Model-Distributed Time Variant Gain Model (CLM-DTVGM) and the Vegetation Interface Processes model (VIP) was suitable for the ecohydrological processes in the ARB under climate change (i.e., R-2 >= 0.583; Nash coefficient >= 0.371; and relative mean standard <= 155.727 for CLM-DTVGM; R-2 = 0.798 for VIP); (2) the vulnerability of the water resource system in the ARB was medium in 2010, and dropped to a medium-low to non-vulnerable level in 2020 before increasing in 2030 under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5); and (3) there was a medium-low risk of water resource shortages in the ARB in 2010 (i.e., 0.246), and although the risk of water resource shortages decreased in 2020 due to the increasing water supply from mountainous areas, the risk predicted to increase significantly in 2030, to a medium-high risk level. This study is critical for accurately predicting and understanding the impact of climate change on water resource systems as well as on the drought risk in arid regions.
英文关键词	Vulnerability Risk assessment Central Asia Climate change Water resource system
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000793855500003
WOS关键词	TARIM RIVER ; ARID REGION ; SPATIAL VARIATIONS ; DROUGHT ; MODEL ; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; VULNERABILITY ; MANAGEMENT ; PRECIPITATION ; PROBABILITY
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/393408
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yang, Peng,Zhang, Shengqing,Xia, Jun,et al. Risk assessment of water resource shortages in the Aksu River basin of northwest China under climate change[J],2022,305.
APA	Yang, Peng.,Zhang, Shengqing.,Xia, Jun.,Chen, Yaning.,Zhang, Yongyong.,...&Chen, Xi.(2022).Risk assessment of water resource shortages in the Aksu River basin of northwest China under climate change.JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT,305.
MLA	Yang, Peng,et al."Risk assessment of water resource shortages in the Aksu River basin of northwest China under climate change".JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 305(2022).