干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Attribution analysis and multi-scenario prediction of NDVI drivers in the Xilin Gol grassland, China

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s40333-022-0032-x
	Attribution analysis and multi-scenario prediction of NDVI drivers in the Xilin Gol grassland, China
	Xu Mengran; Zhang Jing; Li Zhenghai; Mo Yu
通讯作者	Zhang, J
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF ARID LAND
ISSN	1674-6767
EISSN	2194-7783
出版年	2022
卷号	14 期号:9 页码:941-961
英文摘要	Grassland degradation is influenced by climate change and human activities, and has become a major obstacle for the development of arid and semi-arid areas, posing a series of environmental and socio-economic problems. An in-depth understanding of the inner relations among grassland vegetation dynamics, climate change, and human activities is therefore greatly significant for understanding the variation in regional environmental conditions and predicting future developmental trends. Based on MODIS (moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer) NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) data from 2000 to 2020, our objective is to investigate the spatiotemporal changes of NDVI in the Xilin Gol grassland, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China. Combined with 12 natural factors and human activity factors in the same period, the dominant driving factors and their interactions were identified by using the geographic detector model, and multiple scenarios were also simulated to forecast the possible paths of future NDVI changes in this area. The results showed that: (1) in the past 21 a, vegetation cover in the Xilin Gol grassland exhibited an overall increasing trend, and the vegetation restoration (84.53%) area surpassed vegetation degradation area (7.43%); (2) precipitation, wind velocity, and livestock number were the dominant factors affecting NDVI (the explanatory power of these factors exceeded 0.4). The interaction between average annual wind velocity and average annual precipitation, and between average annual precipitation and livestock number greatly affected NDVI changes (the explanatory power of these factors exceeded 0.7). Moreover, the impact of climate change on NDVI was more significant than human activities; and (3) scenario analysis indicated that NDVI in the Xinlin Gol grassland increased under the scenarios of reduced wind velocity, increased precipitation, and ecological protection. In contrast, vegetation coverage restoration in this area was significantly reduced under the scenarios of unfavorable climate conditions and excessive human activities. This study provides a scientific basis for future vegetation restoration and management, ecological environmental construction, and sustainable natural resource utilization in this area.
英文关键词	normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) grassland degradation geographical detector Cellular Automat (CA)-Markov model Xilin Gol grassland
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	Bronze
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000855779100001
WOS关键词	AGROPASTORAL TRANSITIONAL ZONE ; SPATIOTEMPORAL VARIATION ; VEGETATION COVERAGE ; ECOSYSTEM SERVICES ; GRAZING EXCLUSION ; CLIMATE ; DYNAMICS ; RIVER ; DEGRADATION ; RESPONSES
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/393330
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xu Mengran,Zhang Jing,Li Zhenghai,et al. Attribution analysis and multi-scenario prediction of NDVI drivers in the Xilin Gol grassland, China[J],2022,14(9):941-961.
APA	Xu Mengran,Zhang Jing,Li Zhenghai,&Mo Yu.(2022).Attribution analysis and multi-scenario prediction of NDVI drivers in the Xilin Gol grassland, China.JOURNAL OF ARID LAND,14(9),941-961.
MLA	Xu Mengran,et al."Attribution analysis and multi-scenario prediction of NDVI drivers in the Xilin Gol grassland, China".JOURNAL OF ARID LAND 14.9(2022):941-961.