干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Projection of hydrothermal condition in Central Asia under four SSP-RCP scenarios

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s40333-022-0094-9
	Projection of hydrothermal condition in Central Asia under four SSP-RCP scenarios
	Yao, Linlin; Zhou, Hongfei; Yan, Yingjie; Li, Lanhai; Su, Yuan
通讯作者	Zhou, HF
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF ARID LAND
ISSN	1674-6767
EISSN	2194-7783
出版年	2022
卷号	14 期号:5 页码:521-536
英文摘要	Hydrothermal condition is mismatched in arid and semi-arid regions, particularly in Central Asia (including Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan), resulting many environmental limitations. In this study, we projected hydrothermal condition in Central Asia based on bias-corrected multi-model ensembles (MMEs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway and Representative Concentration Pathway (SSP-RCP) scenarios (SSP126 (SSP1-RCP2.6), SSP245 (SSP2-RCP4.5), SSP460 (SSP4-RCP6.0), and SSP585 (SSP5-RCP8.5)) during 2015-2100. The bias correction and spatial disaggregation, water-thermal product index, and sensitivity analysis were used in this study. The results showed that the hydrothermal condition is mismatched in the central and southern deserts, whereas the region of Pamir Mountains and Tianshan Mountains as well as the northern plains of Kazakhstan showed a matched hydrothermal condition. Compared with the historical period, the matched degree of hydrothermal condition improves during 2046-2075, but degenerates during 2015-2044 and 2076-2100. The change of hydrothermal condition is sensitive to precipitation in the northern regions and the maximum temperatures in the southern regions. The result suggests that the optimal scenario in Central Asia is SSP126 scenario, while SSP585 scenario brings further hydrothermal contradictions. This study provides scientific information for the development and sustainable utilization of hydrothermal resources in arid and semi-arid regions under climate change.
英文关键词	hydrothermal condition water-thermal product index bias correction and spatial disaggregation SSP-RCP scenarios Central Asia
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	Bronze
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000800766100004
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACT ; TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS ; BIAS CORRECTION ; FUTURE CHANGES ; PRECIPITATION ; TEMPERATURE ; DROUGHT
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/393317
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yao, Linlin,Zhou, Hongfei,Yan, Yingjie,et al. Projection of hydrothermal condition in Central Asia under four SSP-RCP scenarios[J],2022,14(5):521-536.
APA	Yao, Linlin,Zhou, Hongfei,Yan, Yingjie,Li, Lanhai,&Su, Yuan.(2022).Projection of hydrothermal condition in Central Asia under four SSP-RCP scenarios.JOURNAL OF ARID LAND,14(5),521-536.
MLA	Yao, Linlin,et al."Projection of hydrothermal condition in Central Asia under four SSP-RCP scenarios".JOURNAL OF ARID LAND 14.5(2022):521-536.