干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Economic losses from reduced freshwater under future climate scenarios: An example from the Urumqi River, Tianshan Mountains

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s40333-022-0053-5
	Economic losses from reduced freshwater under future climate scenarios: An example from the Urumqi River, Tianshan Mountains
	Zhang Xueting; Chen Rensheng; Liu Guohua
通讯作者	Chen, RS
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF ARID LAND
ISSN	1674-6767
EISSN	2194-7783
出版年	2022
卷号	14 期号:2 页码:139-153
英文摘要	As important freshwater resources in alpine basins, glaciers and snow cover tend to decline due to climate warming, thus affecting the amount of water available downstream and even regional economic development. However, impact assessments of the economic losses caused by reductions in freshwater supply are quite limited. This study aims to project changes in glacier meltwater and snowmelt of the Urumqi River in the Tianshan Mountains under future climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 (RCP, Representative Concentration Pathway), RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) by applying a hydrological model and estimate the economic losses from future meltwater reduction for industrial, agricultural, service, and domestic water uses combined with the present value method for the 2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s. The results indicate that total annual glacier meltwater and snowmelt will decrease by 65.6% and 74.5% under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios by the 2090s relative to the baseline period (1980-2010), respectively. Compared to the RCP2.6 scenario, the projected economic loss values of total water use from reduced glacier meltwater and snowmelt under the RCP8.5 scenario will increase by 435.10x10(6) and 537.20x10(6) CNY in the 2050s and 2090s, respectively, and the cumulative economic loss value for 2099 is approximately 2124.00x10(6) CNY. We also find that the industrial and agricultural sectors would likely face the largest and smallest economic losses, respectively. The economic loss value of snowmelt in different sectorial sectors is greater than that of glacier meltwater. These findings highlight the need for climate mitigation actions, industrial transformation, and rational water allocation to be considered in decision-making in the Tianshan Mountains in the future.
英文关键词	glacier meltwater snowmelt freshwater supply water use economic losses future climate scenario climate change Tianshan Mountains
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	Bronze
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000767211400002
WOS关键词	SNOWMELT RUNOFF ; NORTHWESTERN CHINA ; ARID REGION ; TIEN-SHAN ; GLACIER ; IMPACTS ; STREAMFLOW ; MELT ; BASIN ; AVAILABILITY
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/393310
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang Xueting,Chen Rensheng,Liu Guohua. Economic losses from reduced freshwater under future climate scenarios: An example from the Urumqi River, Tianshan Mountains[J],2022,14(2):139-153.
APA	Zhang Xueting,Chen Rensheng,&Liu Guohua.(2022).Economic losses from reduced freshwater under future climate scenarios: An example from the Urumqi River, Tianshan Mountains.JOURNAL OF ARID LAND,14(2),139-153.
MLA	Zhang Xueting,et al."Economic losses from reduced freshwater under future climate scenarios: An example from the Urumqi River, Tianshan Mountains".JOURNAL OF ARID LAND 14.2(2022):139-153.