干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Projecting Future Precipitation in the Yellow River Basin Based on CMIP6 Models

Arid

DOI	10.1175/JAMC-D-22-0022.1
	Projecting Future Precipitation in the Yellow River Basin Based on CMIP6 Models
	Sun, Zhouliang; Liu, Yanli; Zhang, Jianyun; Chen, Hua; Shu, Zhangkang; Chen, Xin; Jin, Junliang; Guan, Tiesheng; Liu, Cuishan; He, Ruimin; Wang, Guoqing
通讯作者	Zhang, JY
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN	1558-8424
EISSN	1558-8432
出版年	2022
卷号	61 期号:10 页码:1399-1417
英文摘要	Water resources severely constrain high-quality development in the Yellow River basin (YRB). Predicting the trend of precipitation on the basis of satisfying precision has important guiding significance for future regional development. Using the projected precipitation in 12 CMIP6 models, this study applied the most appropriate correction method for each model from four quantile-mapping methods and projected future changes of annual precipitation in the YRB and three key regions. The projection uncertainty was quantitatively assessed by addressing model spread (MS) and range. The precipitation anomaly under all four scenarios would increase for the YRB and key regions. The increasing rates (the linear coefficient) from Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 126 (SSP126) to SSP585 were 30-62, 60-103, 84-122, and 134-204 mm (100 yr)(-1), respectively. The largest increase was the sediment-yielding region, which reached about 40-60 mm in 2031-60 and 70-125 mm in 2061-90. The 400-mm isohyet was projected to move continuously to the northwest in the future. The uncertainty quantified by MS was reduced by 85.9%-94.6%, and projection ranges were less than 50 mm (about 10% of climatology) in most parts of YRB. From the increasing trend of future precipitation in the YRB, it can be inferred that the arid region will shrink. It may be a good opportunity to implement ecological conservation and high-quality development of the YRB successfully. Significance StatementWe want to understand the spatial-temporal evolution pattern of future precipitation in the Yellow River basin (YRB) under climate change scenarios. In the future, the precipitation in the YRB and the three key regions will increase, with the sediment-yielding region increasing the most, and the arid region will shrink. Our findings confirm that the spatial-temporal patterns of precipitation in the YRB will change significantly under climate change scenarios. These findings will guide ecological protection and regional social and economic development in the YRB. Future research should focus on adaptation strategies of agricultural production patterns to climate change.
英文关键词	Precipitation Climate change Downscaling Climate models Decadal variability
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000874238000003
WOS关键词	MAJOR CLIMATE VARIABLES ; TEMPORAL VARIATION ; WATER-RESOURCES ; AIR-TEMPERATURE ; SEDIMENT LOAD ; CHINA ; IMPACTS ; UNCERTAINTY ; EXTREMES ; VARIABILITY
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/393285
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sun, Zhouliang,Liu, Yanli,Zhang, Jianyun,et al. Projecting Future Precipitation in the Yellow River Basin Based on CMIP6 Models[J],2022,61(10):1399-1417.
APA	Sun, Zhouliang.,Liu, Yanli.,Zhang, Jianyun.,Chen, Hua.,Shu, Zhangkang.,...&Wang, Guoqing.(2022).Projecting Future Precipitation in the Yellow River Basin Based on CMIP6 Models.JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY,61(10),1399-1417.
MLA	Sun, Zhouliang,et al."Projecting Future Precipitation in the Yellow River Basin Based on CMIP6 Models".JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY 61.10(2022):1399-1417.