干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Future changes in extreme precipitation in central Asia with 1.5-4°C global warming based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 simulations

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DOI	10.1002/joc.7740
	Future changes in extreme precipitation in central Asia with 1.5-4°C global warming based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 simulations
	Zhang, Jintao; Wang, Fang
通讯作者	Wang, F
来源期刊	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN	0899-8418
EISSN	1097-0088
出版年	2022
卷号	42 期号:16 页码:8509-8525
英文摘要	Quantifying future precipitation changes in central Asia (CA), one of the largest semiarid-to-arid regions in the world, is increasingly attracting attention. Extreme precipitation changes in CA have been studied based on global climate models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). However, quantitative information regarding projected changes in extreme precipitation in CA under the 1.5-4 degrees C global warming scenario is lacking; the potential advantages of the latest-generation GCMs (i.e., CMIP6) in characterizing precipitation in CA have not been investigated. Thus, in this study, we evaluated the models' overall performance in reproducing the spatiotemporal pattern of four extreme precipitation indices and further performed an observationally constrained projection of changes in extreme precipitation indices for 1.5-4 degrees C global warming based on a weighted multimodel ensemble. Regarding homologous models, CMIP6 models exhibited limited improvement relative to their earlier versions in CMIP5. We project that extreme precipitation indices in CA will increase approximately linearly as global warming increases, except for the consecutive dry days (CDD) index. The changes in precipitation intensity and accumulation exhibit robust consistency between models, whereas the signal of CDD changes is masked by the noise produced by intermodel uncertainties. The changes in the average annual accumulated and maximum 1-day precipitation relative to the reference period (1981-2010) in CA are 12.0 and 14.2% at 3 degrees C global warming (similar to late-century warming projected based on current mitigation policies), respectively. Moreover, we demonstrate the advantage of the weighted scheme over the traditional unweighted scheme for multimodel ensemble projection.
英文关键词	central Asia CMIP5 CMIP6 evaluation extreme precipitation projection
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000806597100001
WOS关键词	2 DEGREES-C ; TEMPERATURE EXTREMES ; LARGE ENSEMBLES ; CLIMATE ; CHINA ; CMIP5 ; INDEXES ; UNCERTAINTY ; LAND ; PERFORMANCE
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/393133
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Jintao,Wang, Fang. Future changes in extreme precipitation in central Asia with 1.5-4°C global warming based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 simulations[J],2022,42(16):8509-8525.
APA	Zhang, Jintao,&Wang, Fang.(2022).Future changes in extreme precipitation in central Asia with 1.5-4°C global warming based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 simulations.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,42(16),8509-8525.
MLA	Zhang, Jintao,et al."Future changes in extreme precipitation in central Asia with 1.5-4°C global warming based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 simulations".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 42.16(2022):8509-8525.