干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Drought forecasting using the Prophet model in a semi-arid climate region of western India

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DOI	10.1080/02626667.2022.2082876
	Drought forecasting using the Prophet model in a semi-arid climate region of western India
	Basak, Amiya; Rahman, A. T. M. Sakiur; Das, Jayanta; Hosono, Takahiro; Kisi, Ozgur
通讯作者	Rahman, ATMS
来源期刊	HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL
ISSN	0262-6667
EISSN	2150-3435
出版年	2022
卷号	67 期号:9 页码:1397-1417
英文摘要	Accurate drought forecasting is necessary for early warning of drought hazards, water resources and eco-environmental management. This study assessed the capability of the Prophet model to forecast meteorological drought based on the standardized precipitation index (SPI). A comparative assessment was conducted among Prophet, support vector regression (SVR) and multiple linear regression (MLR) models to test the applicability of the new model. The SPI was computed at multiple time scales (SPI3, SPI6, SPI12 and SPI24) for 38 meteorological stations located in semi-arid areas in western India. Minimum redundancy maximum relevance (mRMR) was applied to select input variables prior to the model development. The results reveal that the Prophet model yielded acceptable accuracy for drought forecasting, whereas SVR and MLR models showed greater error for short-term forecasting in terms of coefficient of determination (R-2) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE). Therefore, the Prophet model is recommended as a new robust model for drought forecasting.
英文关键词	drought forecasting mRMR standardized precipitation index Prophet SVR
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000814141800001
WOS关键词	ARTIFICIAL NEURAL-NETWORK ; INPUT VARIABLE SELECTION ; METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT ; HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT ; STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION ; RIVER-BASIN ; TIME-SERIES ; MUTUAL INFORMATION ; CHANGE SCENARIOS ; RAJASTHAN STATE
WOS类目	Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/393059
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Basak, Amiya,Rahman, A. T. M. Sakiur,Das, Jayanta,et al. Drought forecasting using the Prophet model in a semi-arid climate region of western India[J],2022,67(9):1397-1417.
APA	Basak, Amiya,Rahman, A. T. M. Sakiur,Das, Jayanta,Hosono, Takahiro,&Kisi, Ozgur.(2022).Drought forecasting using the Prophet model in a semi-arid climate region of western India.HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL,67(9),1397-1417.
MLA	Basak, Amiya,et al."Drought forecasting using the Prophet model in a semi-arid climate region of western India".HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL 67.9(2022):1397-1417.